(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Wednesday was quite a day for driving.

I began the day with a drive up to Boulder for the monthly luncheon of the Boulder Democratic Women’s Club. State Chair Pat Waak and I were speakers. It was a robust crowd — over 200 present, including Joan Fitz-Gerald and Jared Polis, who are running for Congress in the 2nd Congressional District. A number of local candidates and elected officials were also present.

Pat and I both spoke about a number of issues, and then we took several questions from the audience after our talks. Most of the questions surrounded the Presidential race, and our roles as Superdelegates. Pat reiterated her long-standing view that her role as the chair of the host state party for the National Convention is to stay neutral for as long as possible. We faced questions about the tenor of the campaign, about Michigan and Florida, and about our two remaining candidates. It was a very refreshing and stimulating discussion, and a nice change of pace from all of the different county assemblies and conventions we’ve been attending lately.

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After Boulder, I headed back to Canon City — literally just long enough to stop at my law office and check the mail — before getting back on the road to head south to Walsenburg. There, I attended the Huerfano County Democratic Assembly and Convention.

Walsenburg hosted another good crowd of Democrats. I kicked off the meeting with a short speech, and then they moved into the convention portion of the program. Several people spoke about their choices for President before taking the preference poll — most were very respectful of the other candidates, although there was one who tried to quote from a supermarket tabloid in opposition to one of the candidates. In the end, the vote was 30 to 20 in favor of Sen. Obama, giving him 7 of the county’s votes to 4 for Sen. Clinton.

County Chair Cindy Campbell, who was leaving the post due to health reasons, did an outstanding job getting through the county convention, and there seemed to be a truly positive atmosphere there when I left.

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But I wasn’t done yet. After leaving Walsenburg, I raced up to Pueblo, where I was the guest on the CSU-Pueblo student radio station’s political talk show. “Rev 89,” as the station is called, is not your average college radio station. I don’t know the current ratings, but when I first moved back to Southern Colorado a few years ago, it was the top-rated station in the Pueblo market, beating out all of the commercial radio stations.

The show was very interesting — the three co-hosts are pretty equally divided: one is an Obama supporter, one is a Clinton supporter, and one is a McCain supporter. Over the hour that I was on the show, we talked about a number of issues, and I used every opportunity to point out the differences between Sen. McCain and our two candidates. We talked about the state of the Presidential race, and my role as a Superdelegate and DNC Member. The co-hosts were unbelievably well-prepared, with notes on a number of very divergent issues on which they wanted to talk. I was impressed, and the hour went quickly, and was very entertaining.

By then, it was late, and I had to head home to Canon City — bone tired. Tonight, as I’ve mentioned before, I’m off to Southeast Colorado for a pair of assemblies / conventions. Maybe I’ll see you there!

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Last night, I went to Colorado Springs to attend a couple of events for the planning of the upcoming State Convention and Assembly there on May 16-17. What is happening is pretty incredible.

I first attended an informational meeting held by a group of local businesspeople who are looking to really showcase Colorado Springs and the Pikes Peak region as Democrats arrive in May. They have all sorts of events planned. In particular, they are working on three tours (so far) — a tour of “progressive Colorado Springs,” including open space areas and areas of interest to progressives (sending the message that not all of El Paso County is a monolithic “Focus on the Family” group); a tour of the many El Paso County military installations, led by former 5th CD candidate Jay Fawcett; and a tour of the U.S. Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs. They are also working on arranging for a “Progressive Night for Progressives,” featuring a street party with a “progressive dinner” — food from several different restaurants downtown. There is an incredibly intense interest in showing Colorado Democrats a good time when they visit Colorado Springs.

In addition to those efforts, the local Democrats and the State Party are working hard to make sure that delegates and alternates are treated well, and plans are being made to do just that. After leaving the first meeting, I attended a meeting of local committee chairs. As I told the committee last night, there is simply no way we can over-estimate the crowds we will see in May. Plans are being made to double the estimates of the crowds we usually have (and the crowds we usually have are pretty big), but we really could see a lot more than that even. We are working to make sure that the State Party learns from the crowds seen on caucus night and at the county assemblies, and that we make sure that the plans are in place to deal with those crowds effectively and efficiently.

There are a number of efforts already underway. We have a committee working to ensure that transportation issues within Colorado Springs are handled well. Another committee is focusing on accessibility issues, and working to keep focused on planning for delegates and alternates with disabilities. Yet another committee is working to be sure that registration runs smoothly; another committee is focused on being certain delegates and alternates are warmly welcomed to Colorado Springs and questions are answered quickly (and correctly). We even have a committee focused entirely on “greening” the convention — making sure our efforts are as environmentally-friendly as possible. And that’s just a handful of the committees. The planning is going very well!

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A couple of days ago, I mentioned the Denver Film Society’s “Cinemocracy” efforts in conjunction with the National Convention. Well, the Host Committee has issued a press release this morning with more details. Here is some of that release:

Building upon the Denver 2008 Convention Host Committee’s Call to Democracy effort, the Denver Office of Cultural Affairs (DOCA) and Denver Film Society (DFS), producers of the Starz Denver Film Festival, are pleased to announce the creation and launch of the Cinemocracy Film Festival, an open source film festival to coincide with the 2008 Democratic National Convention. As an official event of the Host Committee, Cinemocracy calls for open participation in the political process.

Info at a Glance:

– 2008 Cinemocracy Film Festival addresses the topic of “How do you define Democracy?”
– Top-ranked films will be publicly screened in Denver during the week of the 2008 Democratic National Convention (August 25-28).
– For submission guidelines and official rules, visit www.denverfilm.org/cinemocracy.

During a year of monumental change, the Host Committee, DOCA and DFS invite citizens of the world to speak out and share ideas on what democracy is (or isn’t) through the creation of short films. All films submitted via free upload will be judged by the online public and the top 10 will be screened at a free public event in Denver during the week of Aug. 25-28.

Additionally, the winning film will be screened as part of the official program of the 31st Starz Denver Film Festival (November 13-23). The film festival is one of many events planned that underscore the Host Committee’s Call to Democracy efforts, encouraging public engagement and civic awareness in the democratic process.

Submitted films can be up to five minutes long and can be uploaded from March 1 through July 15 to www.denverfilm.org/cinemocracy. Voting will remain open until Aug. 1.

If you’re an amateur (or maybe even better-than-amateur) film-maker, take a look at this and do your submission ASAP. And, heck, you might even see your submission in May at the State Convention if you get things done and submitted early enough! I have had a preliminary discussion with the Denver Film Society, and we may be able to show a few of their submissions at the State Convention on May 17 (if you attended the State Convention in 2004, you may recall we used some Moveon.org submissions in a similar contest during that convention).

Because of the intense interest in unpledged delegates, I asked Phil McNamara of the DNC to give us a little history. His comments follow:

“Super delegates — or as they are technically known ‘unpledged delegates’ — were first introduced by the Party in 1982 for the 1984 nominating cycle.

These individuals serve as delegates because of some prominent office they hold or have held. While unpledged delegates probably do have a presidential preference, this is not a factor in why they are delegates. Rather, they serve as delegates because the Democratic Party wants the important perspective they bring to the decision-making process at the National Convention.

In recommending the creation of unpledged delegates the Commission on Presidential Nomination (the Hunt Commission) sought a way to more effectively bring elected official and Party leader participation back into the Convention. The Hunt Commission found that elected officials made up just 14% of the total delegates at the 1980 Convention.

Political scientist William Crotty wrote about the super delegates in 1983 and said the following:

‘As presented to the Hunt Commission, then, the gains from increased participation in nomination decision-making by party professionals would be substantial:

These leaders and officials, as experienced politicians, would bring seasoned and sensitive judgment to the selection of a nominee and to the conduct of other party business.

Convention participation would create stronger ties between the party and its officeholders, promoting a unified campaign strategy and teamwork in government.

The inclusion of more elected officials would strengthen the party’s ties to their constituencies and its broad mainstream approval.’

Also DNC member Elaine Kamarck has a pretty good historical background of super delegates on the Harvard Kennedy School website. Link is:

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/ksgnews/Features/opeds/021408_kamarck.htm

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Last night, I headed up to the mountain counties to attend the Eagle and Summit county conventions. The two counties had coordinated to allow folks from outside of the counties to attend both — Eagle was set to start at 6 pm, with Summit an hour later, at 7 pm.

Sunday night, after my last post where I mentioned my plan to head up there, I received several e-mails from folks who warned me that the weather would be bad. I spent Monday monitoring road conditions and weather forecasts, and it seemed like the drive would be passable. I was mostly worried about the two-lane road over Hoosier Pass on Highway 9. I drove up, running into some heavy snow just before getting to Hoosier Pass, in the small town of Alma in Park County. The roads were a little slippery, but I made it over the pass just fine.

As I was almost to Frisco, I tried to call Debbie Marquez in Eagle County to let her know I’d be a few minutes late due to the snow. I left her a message — just as I noticed a lot of traffic and flashing lights ahead. As I got to I-70, it became clear: they’d shut down the interstate going West. I tried the other Frisco exit, but there was no use — nobody was getting through. I had to call Debbie and let her know I would not make it.

On the positive side, I did make it to Summit County’s Convention and Assembly in Frisco plenty early!

In Summit, folks there were grappling with the snow. One delegate told me about his 5-mile, hour and a half ride from Silverthorne. Sen. Dan Gibbs called and said he was going to try to drive south around Dillon Lake to make it to Frisco via a very circuitous route. (He made it with time to spare.) In the end, folks planned well, and nearly every delegate made it to the meeting — I guess they have some experience with snow in Summit County.

Once the meeting started, there had to be some folks in the audience who wondered if they’d stumbled onto the “Dan Slater Show,” because it seemed like I was being called up to the stage to talk for the first half of the meeting. As in Gunnison, I was honored to welcome folks to the meeting on behalf of the Colorado Democratic Party — I think I sure helped in warming things up and getting folks a little more fired up. Then, only a few minutes later, the agenda called for the Presidential campaigns to have their representatives speak, so I gave a brief talk for Senator Obama. Then, shortly after that, they were taking some time seating some remaining alternates, so Chair Sandy Briggs had me just “keep the audience entertained” while they seated the alternates. For the first time in a long time — maybe ever — I ran out of stuff to say.

Once the alternates were seated, they held the Presidential preference vote — neither my speech nor the Clinton campaign’s speech swayed a single vote. The delegates voted the same as they came in: 58 Obama, 38 Clinton. This resulted in 25 delegates for Obama and 13 for Clinton from Summit County. As in prior assemblies, everybody wanted to be a delegate, so it took both camps a while to figure out who would be delegates and alternates. While they were doing this, the caravan from Eagle County arrived: Jared Polis, Joan Fitz-Gerald, DNC Field staffer Kim Phillips, and DNC Training Director Parag Mehta. I greeted everybody and then headed back to my car in the snow — for the two-hour drive home.

In case anybody’s wondering, they did the preference poll for the CD-2 race shortly after I left. Senator Fitz-Gerald won the preference poll, with 56 votes to 17 votes for Jared Polis. This led to a delegate split of 29-9 in favor of Fitz-Gerald.

Debbie Marquez has been kind enough to send me her narrative of what happened in Eagle County to put in place of my absence. Here it is:

Last night was the first assembly elections for our CD2 Congressional candidates. Both Eagle and Summit Counties voted for the CD2 race. We were fortunate to have candidates Jared Polis and Joan Fitz-Gerald address our assembly with passionate speeches. Jared Polis received 62 votes and Joan received 63 and there were about a dozen uncommitted that didn’t achieve viability. They will split the delegates even Steven with 23 each. Both candidates spent a lot of time in the county and phoning delegates, but with our two of our commissioners lending their support to Joan, I thought she would get more votes at assembly. But Jared seems to have attracted undecided voters to vote for him. (For disclosure sake, I [Debbie] am the treasurer for the Jared Polis for Congress campaign.)

Thanks to Debbie for that narrative.

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After about 5 hours of sleep, I got up and headed up to Denver for the Denver 2008 Host Committee meeting this morning. On the way, I ran into about everything imaginable: rain, snow, fog, ice — I even think I may have seen the Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse out there! (That’s the only explanation for one of the slow-downs near Castle Rock.)

The meeting this morning at the Colorado Convention Center was for all of the various committee members. While I arrived an hour late, I must say that it was extraordinarily impressive. When I helped kick off the concept of bidding for the Convention, I had dreams — but some of these things that are planned for Denver exceed my wildest dreams.

Throughout Denver during and around the Convention, we’ll see all sorts of artistic expressions of various media — object art, musical art, and performance art will be seen throughout the city. There will be a focus on so much citizen involvement from now through the Convention. For instance, the Denver Film Society is working on a project that will launch on March 1, called Filmocracy. People can submit their 5 minute (or less) videos that focus on democracy and what we’re doing in Denver.

Others are encouraged through another program, called America - Live and In Person, to submit their essays, artistic works, etc. for use surrounding the convention. More details about this will be released as they become available.

We also heard about the amazing work “greening” the Convention. Mayor Hickenlooper has pledged to make this the greenest Convention ever, and the Host Committee and DNCC are working to keep that commitment.

The Pepsi Center had a representative there, too. He spoke about the collaboration between the Pepsi Center staff and the DNCC / Host Committee. He also pointed to the “mojo” they expected from the convention. What mojo? Well, in 1996, the Chicago Convention led to the Chicago Bulls winning the NBA Championship. In 2000, the LA Lakers won the NBA Championship the same year as the LA Convention. And in 2004, the New England Patriots had a Super Bowl-winning year the same year as the Boston Convention. So, maybe Forsberg is just what the Avs need for the “mojo” to happen here!

Finally, we heard from the Downtown Denver Partnership. They spoke about their work to make sure Coloradans know that Downtown will be “open for business” before, during, and after the Convention. There are a lot of different activities planned for downtown, and they are working hard to keep area residents involved in getting out during the Convention and having fun.

Well, that’s all for now. I had planned on heading down to another county assembly tonight, but exhaustion from the driving and lack of sleep is kicking in, so I doubt I’ll make it. I’m off to Colorado Springs tomorrow night for meetings on the planning for the State Convention — I’ll write more about that when I can.

Dan Slater did a nice job of commenting in his blog on the State Executive Committee and State Central Committee Meetings this past Saturday. In spite of the weather there was a terrific turn out. It underlines the enthusiasm on the part of Democrats in the state. I personally welcome Butch Hicks as our new treasurer. He has big shoes to fill with Rep. Mark Ferrandino moving on. But Butch has been treasurer in Adams County for years and brings a ton of experience.

The next day, Sunday, Sky Gallegos and I flew to Durango for another community conversation and training. Over 80 people from La Plata, Montezuma and Archuleta County showed up to hear about the upcoming convention. They stayed for the next hour to learn about the caucus process and the DNC’s Neighbor to Neighbor project.

It was the liveliest session we have had, with tons of questions. I used part of Dan Slater’s really good powerpoint presentation, plus a new chart that Billy Compton has put together to show the total process. Dan’s presentation is up on the website so it can be downloaded. However, he is conducting a number of trainings throughout the state, as am I and Carolyn Boller. I also know that many counties are conducting their own.

Among the participants on Sunday, Joelle Riddle and Wally White, La Plata County Commissioners, were in attendance. John Whitney from Rep. John Salazar’s office was on hand. The Durango Herald called the event part pep rally. And we all agree.

After dropping Sky Gallegos at the airport, I stayed at Alison Dance’s lovely guest studio. Because of the ice and snow, I experienced what it is like to be without my winter tires. The car I was driving slid down a hill into the ditch. Luckily I was rescued by my hosts and no damage to the car or myself. The next morning’s snow storm cancelled my trips to Cortez and Dove Creek, so I spent most of the day on conference calls and my trusty Blackberry.

On Tuesday morning, Joelle Riddle and I traveled through the snow to have breakfast with Chairman Frost of the Southern Utes. We discussed how we might get some of the Democrats in the seven tribes to run for delegate. I have a list of people to confer with in the next few weeks.

It cleared enough so I could fly back to Denver and meet with Beage Atwater, who is once again directing the coordinated campaign. That was followed by a larger meeting with the DSCC and consultants. Staff is already working on outreach efforts,.

That evening a dozen members of the CDP Faith and Politics Project met with Rev. Terri Lavelle, director of the DNC Faith in Action Program, and John Kelly, who works on outreach for the same program. The night before they had attended a house party of 20 people from the Catholic community.

Our major discussion was around the upcoming seminar on Engaged Spirituality. We hope to use this event to recruit more people who would be willing to hold house parties. To follow is the information on the seminar to be held January 12, 2008.

Registration is 9:30 a.m. Program begins at 10:00 a.m.
End time: 4:00 p.m.

The event is at the Iliff School of Theology, 2201 S. University Blvd.
Denver, CO 80201. The meeting will take place in the Great Hall to the right as you enter the main entrance.

Agenda to follow:

Engaged Spirituality Forum
Faith and Politics Project of the Colorado Democratic Party
Hosted by Iliff School of Theology
January 12,2008

10:00 a.m. Native American Meditation: George Tinker

10:15 a.m. Welcome: Iliff President David Trickett

10:30 a.m. Greeting and Introduction of Keynote Speaker: Pat Waak, Chair, Colorado Democratic Party

Keynote Speaker: The Rev. Leah Daughtry, Chair of the 2008 Democratic Convention

11:00 a.m. A panel discussion: Exploring the Constitutional Mandates: Establishment Clause and Free Exercise Clause
The Rev. Ron Stief of “Faith in Public Life”
Taj Ashaheed: Executive Director of the Colorado Muslim Council
Representative Morgan Carroll, Colorado General Assembly

12:30 p.m. Lunch with Governor Bill Ritter

1:30 p.m. & 2:30p.m. Break-out Workshops
Faith and Immigration: American Hospitality and Economic Necessity
Representative Terrance Carroll, Colorado General Assembly
Dr. Miguel de la Torre

Faith and War: Superpower for Conquest or Common Good
Larry Howe-Kerr, Catholic Social Justice Activist
Pastor Ted Fritshel

Faith and Healthcare – Life-Health Issues in a Broader Context
Representative Jim Riesberg , Colorado General Assembly
The Rev. Dr. Michael Attas, Medical Ethics Professor at Baylor

Faith and the Environment – Making the Connections
The Rev. Peter Sawtell, Director of Eco-Justice Ministries, UCC
Eileen Regan, Environmental Scientist and Spiritual Director

Registration fee is $20, which includes a box lunch. You can register online at www.coloradodems.org

Contact for information: Pat Waak, Chair, Colorado Democratic Party, pwaak@coloradodems.org

Coming back from the DNC meeting, we had the opportunity to hit the ground running. Monday night Sky Gallegos, Deputy CEO for Intergovernmental Relations of the DNCC, and I conducted a community forum in Fort Collins. It was standing room only, with representatives from Larimer, Weld and Morgan Counties in attendance.

The meetings that Sky and I are doing include an opportunity to discuss what will happen at the Democratic National Convention next year, as well as caucus training and the DNC’s Neighorhood Leader program. The questions were centered around volunteering and ways to promote your local community to incoming visitors. For some fun commentary, check out www.demconvention.com. They have a blog with video interviews.

However, the caucus training was important as well. About 60% of the audience had been to caucus before. The rest were really learning about caucuses and how to become delegates. Adam Bowen, Larimer County Democratic Chair, said that there were lots of new faces in the crowd. And we recruited about 15 new neighborhood leaders.

On Tuesday, Dick Wadhams and I made presentations to the Denver Lions Club. A packed lunchtime group listened to us talk about the importance of caucuses in Colorado and the changes we expect to see with the coming year’s participation. My prediction is that we will have a record turnout in 2008 because of all the Presidential candidates working in the state, the early date for our caucuses, and the interest in becoming a delegate to the National Democratic Convention in Denver.

On Wednesday, over 200 people gathered at A Spice of Life conference center in Boulder. The DNCC held a community conversation with Leah Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC, and Rep. Alice Madden, Colorado House Majority Leader. The big announcement was the introduction of Andrea Robinson, who will be in charge of “greening” the national convention. I also had a few moments to explain the caucuses and how one could become a delegate.

Other upcoming events:
1) The Colorado State Executive Committee and State Central Committee will be meeting on Saturday to approve next year’s budget, elect a new treasurer, and handle party business.

2) There will be Faith and Politics House Parties on Monday evening. On Tuesday of next week, we will host a larger meeting at the CDP at 6:30 P.M. Rev. Terri Lavelle and John Kelly from the DNC’s Faith in Action Project will be here.

3) The Faith and Politics Seminar is scheduled for January 12, 2008 at Iliff School of Theology. Speakers will include Leah Daughtry, Governor Bill Ritter, Rep. Terrance Carroll, Rep. Morgan Carroll and Rep. Jim Reisberg.

4) Sky Gallegos and I will be hosting a community conversation and training in Durango, Sunday, Dec. 9, 2007 at the Durango Community Recreation Center (Peaks Room). The event will go from 1:00 P.M. to 3:00 P.M.

5) I will be visiting with Montezuma County Dems in Cortez at The Main Bookstore in Cortez at 10:00 A.M. on Monday, Dec. 10, 2007.

6) And I will be having dinner with the Dolores County Dems at the Blue Mountain Cafe in Dove Creek at 6:30 P.M. that evening.

Hope to see you at one of these events.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

This afternoon in Virginia, I spent my time in two “official” meetings and one not-so-official meeting. The Association of State Democratic Chairs met, followed by a very informal meeting of all of the state party vice-chairs, and then the day concluded with a meeting of the DNC Youth Council.

The ASDC meeting was the biggest chunk of the day. Pat, Sherry and I attended, and we heard from a number of folks about efforts in place for 2008. Governor Dean kicked off the meeting with a discussion of the challenges ahead in the 50-state program and what he is hoping to see from our field plan. Following Governor Dean, the Party Chairs and Vice Chairs heard from a representative each from Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid’s offices. They discussed the many successes of the Congress, the challeges posed by Republican obstructionism (they were described as the G.O.P. - the “Grand Obstruction Party”), and the problems facing the leadership in getting this message out to the average American.

The congressional staff were followed by Ben Self, who is the DNC Technology Director, who gave us an impressive update of the efforts made to continue the improvement of VoteBuilder (a/k/a VAN). We finally heard from some of the national convention staff, who discussed the next 30-60 days for state parties as they make plans to come to Denver. Of particular interest was Tina Akintayo, who is the DNCC Director of Housing. All of us from Colorado have been getting questions about the housing assignments (is the hotel nice? is it near the Convention Center? etc…) In the end, though, I believe I heard Tina say on a conference call last week that every delegation got either its first or second choice for housing, so I think folks will be generally happy.

Following the ASDC meeting, the Vice Chairs got together for an informal session to discuss our work in the various states and share ideas. We had a nearly hour-long discussion, with a pledge to do something even more organized the next time the ASDC meets.

I then went over to the Youth Council meeting. There are about 20 or fewer members of the DNC aged 35 or younger. For the next 8 months, I am one of those lucky few. This meeting was a truly lively discussion of efforts to include youth outreach in each of the Presidential campaigns and further efforts to reach out to young people who want to be delegates to the National Convention. Representatives from several presidential campaigns were there, and the discussion — while noisy at times — was very productive, I think.

Tomorrow is the big day for speeches. I’ll write more about that tomorrow.

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Sorry for the length of this post, but the NCEC (National Center for an Effective Congress), who does a lot of data crunching and vote analysis on a precinct-by-precinct level for Democrats, has just issued a short analysis of the state of Colorado politics. It is very interesting, and speaks volumes about the work of Democrats in counties like Douglas, Arapahoe, and Larimer counties. Mike Piel from the NCEC forwarded it to me, and gave me permission to post it to DemNotes. Again, I realize it is long, but it is good reading (even if it does skip CD-5):

Colorado Trending Blue
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity. In the last two election cycles, Democrats have captured two House seats, a Senate seat, the governorship, and control of both houses of the state legislature. This transformation is symptomatic of a wider development across the country that has Republican strategists deeply concerned. In short, Democrats are performing vastly better in suburban and exurban areas, and this development has put Republicans on the defensive. Colorado ’s nine electoral votes could be immensely important to Democratic presidential aspirations, and the fate of the state could serve as a strong bellwether indicator of the larger race. Colorado will more than ever be a focal point of the national election in 2008. Not only is the presidential election expected to be solidly competitive, but there is also an open Senate race, two open-seat House races, and five potentially competitive House races. In the past two cycles, Democrats have experienced increasing success in key suburban and exurban areas such as Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, leaving rural counties as the only staunchly conservative areas left for the GOP.

One of the most important factors in the increased Democratic success in Colorado is the growing support for the party in suburban areas previously dominated by Republicans. Arapahoe County is a solid example of this evolution. Since 2000, the voting-age population of Arapahoe County has increased by more than 42,000, and this increase has dramatically changed the voting habits of the county. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 43 percent of the vote in Arapahoe County . By 2002, Democratic support had increased to 46.5 percent in the Senate race. The trend of increased Democratic performance continued in 2004 and 2006. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried Arapahoe County with 52 percent of the vote, and Governor Bill Ritter outperformed Salazar in 2006 when he received nearly 60 percent of the vote (59.5 percent).

Douglas County , one of the fastest-growing counties in the country, also shows some of these positive Democratic trends. The voting-age population has increased by more than 69,000 since 2000. While the Democratic gains are not as pronounced as the shift seen in Arapahoe County , there has still been a boost in Democratic support. In 2000, Al Gore received just 31 percent of the vote in Douglas County . In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received 33 percent of the vote, a modest improvement. In 2004, Ken Salazar received more than 38 percent. The voting trend accelerated in 2006, as Governor Bill Ritter nearly carried Douglas County with more than 46 percent of the vote. While this county remains solid Republican, consistent Democratic gains in this large population center are a direct contributor to the recent success of Democrats in statewide elections.

Jefferson County , another rapidly growing population center home to more than 350,000 registered voters, has exhibited these same voting tendencies. Jefferson County was selected as the center and main voting contributor to the new Seventh Congressional District, which was added in 2002. The voting-age population has grown by 10,000 since 2000, and Democrats have been performing increasingly well there. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat, now controls the Seventh District; this would have been unthinkable ten years ago. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 44 percent of the vote in Jefferson County , but demographic shifts in the county have increased the Democratic share of the vote. In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland got more than 47 percent of the vote in Jefferson County . Ken Salazar won Jefferson County by 4 percent in 2004, and Bill Ritter amassed more than 59 percent of the vote in Jefferson County in 2006—making a 16 percent shift from 1996 to 2006.

A final example of this voting trend is Larimer County , which has seen some of the most drastic changes. Over the past seven years the voting-age population has grown by more than 24,000, and subsequent increases in Democratic support have been seen. In 2000, Al Gore got less than 40 percent of the vote in Larimer County , which is made up of rural, suburban, and exurban areas. A major shift was already evident in this county by 2002, when Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received more than 44 percent of the vote. The trend continues, as Ken Salazar won Larimer County with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. Bill Ritter won more than 58 percent of the vote in Larimer County in 2006, which represents an 18 percent surge in Democratic support from 2000–2006.

Implications for 2008

If current trends hold, Colorado will be a major player in the 2008 presidential race, as well as a golden opportunity for another Senate pickup for the Democrats. Beyond statewide races, there are competitive House races as well.

President : Democrats failed in 2004 largely because of their dependence on winning a great majority of the traditional presidential swing states, which left no room for error or a setback. In 2004, there were not enough targets. As the 2008 election approaches, Democrats should look to Colorado to expand the playing field. Picking up Colorado ’s nine electoral votes would be of great importance to the overall Western campaign strategy. John Kerry ended up 18 electoral votes shy of winning the presidency, which caused too much importance to be placed on Ohio . There are three states in the West that are expected to be competitive and that could offset the importance of Ohio and make winning there less crucial. If the Democratic candidate wins Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, all states that were decided by less than 5 percent in 2004, 19 electoral votes would be gained, which would be sufficient to make up for any potential defeat in Ohio. If present trends hold there is a good chance that Colorado could go to the Democrats for the first time since 1992.

Senate : Early polling and financial data are both extremely positive for Democrats in this Senate race. Mark Udall holds a significant advantage in money and (thus far) in support. A poll from Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling firm, had Udall ahead of Republican candidate Bob Schaffer by 5 percent (45-40). Other polling had Udall even further ahead. Udall can also count on the support of vastly popular Democratic Governor Bill Ritter. As alluded to before, increased Democratic performance in suburban areas has been paramount for recent success for Democrats. If this trend holds, Udall is certainly the favorite.

CO-02: Incumbent Mark Udall has vacated this seat to run for the Senate, but despite its open-seat status, this race is only “potentially competitive.” The major population centers in this district are in Adams, Boulder , Broomfield , and Jefferson counties. The Second District portions of Adams and Boulder counties are solidly Democratic. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried 58 percent of the Adams County portion of the district, and both Kerry and Salazar amassed 72 percent of the vote in Boulder County . Jefferson and Broomfield remain competitive, but Democrats have performed increasingly well there over the past few cycles. Ken Salazar carried the Second District portion of both counties in 2004, outpacing John Kerry by 5 percent in both counties. Republicans lack a candidate at present, so there is little chance that they will lose this district. Any one of the three potential Democratic candidates will most likely be able to hold on to this district.

CO-04: The Fourth District has been trending Democratic over the past three cycles. Marilyn Musgrave’s margin of victory has steadily decreased over the past three cycles, but 2006 might have been Democrats’ best chance to defeat her given the political environment. Angie Paccione lost by a mere 3 percent due to a number of factors.

Paccione performed well in Larimer County , which is essential for any Democrat. She amassed more than 54 percent of the major party vote, which was a large improvement over Stan Matsunaka’s performance in 2002 and 2004 when he failed to carry the county. In addition to Larimer County , Paccione performed reasonably well in Boulder County , receiving nearly 54 percent of the vote. However, in both Larimer County and Boulder County , Paccione ran well behind Governor Bill Ritter’s numbers, which suggests that even though she performed well in both these counties there is room for improvement. For example, Paccione received nearly 5 percent less than did Bill Ritter in Boulder County , and more than 3 percent less in Larimer County . Modest improvement in these counties could put this district increasingly in play.

Another factor that led to Paccione’s defeat is one that was symptomatic of many close defeats for Democrats in 2006: Democrats expanded their performance in urban and suburban areas, but did not improve in rural areas. The Fourth District comprises mainly rural counties where Paccione failed to improve on past cycles. For example, her share of the major party vote ran behind Stan Matsunaka’s 2004 share in Cheyenne , Logan , Morgan , Washington , Weld, and Yuma counties. Slightly increased performance in these counties would have given her a real chance to win the race.

Musgrave has toned down her rhetoric so far this term, which will make her more difficult to beat. However, slight improvements in rural areas, coupled with extended success in Boulder County and Larimer County , could flip this seat in 2008.

CO-06: Tom Tancredo’s retirement will make this a much more competitive race, but winning this gerrymandered district will take a strong moderate candidate who can attract a decent number of Republican votes. The Sixth District pulls in the most conservative parts of Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. In 2004, John Kerry and Ken Salazar ran well below their countywide percentages in the Sixth District portion of these counties. For example, Ken Salazar received 52 percent of the countywide vote in Arapahoe County in 2004, but just 47 percent in the Sixth District portion of the county. The same scenario played out in Jefferson County where Salazar performed more than 4 percent worse in the Sixth District portion of the county in comparison to his countywide performance. Mike Coffman’s entrance into the race will make this district even harder to win, but will lead to a Democrat taking the position of Secretary of State.

CO-07: Ed Perlmutter’s 13 percent victory in this district has led Republicans to essentially abandon the district. No opponent to Perlmutter has surfaced as of yet, and it is likely that he will be reelected.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

We are now just about a month out from the first actual votes in the Presidential race (maybe even sooner - I understand that some absentee ballots in Feb. 5 states may be in voters’ hands as early as December). Iowa is revved up for January 3, and the Democratic Party is anxiously awaiting the results of the early primaries and caucuses (including Colorado’s Feb. 5 caucus) to see who our nominee will be.

I’m here in Vienna, Virginia — a suburb of Washington DC — for the Winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Several other Coloradans are here, as well. Last night, I enjoyed a couple of drinks with DNC Members Mannie Rodriguez and Maria Handley, as well as CDP Executive Director Sherry Jackson and DNC members from Kansas and New Mexico. Pat Waak stopped by on her way out to dinner to say hello, as well. No matter where you go around here, the talk is about the Presidential race; Mannie was doing everything he could to talk up his candidate, Senator Clinton, while the New Mexico folks were pressing hard to get in some of the finer points about why supporting Governor Richardson was so critical.

The meetings start slowly with a few this afternoon: the Association of State Democratic Chairs will meet, followed by the Resolutions Committee and the Youth and Senior Coordinating Councils. I spoke to the Senior Coordinating Council a couple of years ago about what we’re doing in Colorado, and I’m a member (at least until next July) of the Youth Coordinating Council.

Tomorrow, though, is the big show. Hopefully, you will get a chance to catch some of the meeting on C-SPAN. I believe the coverage will start around 8 am Mountain time. Nearly every Presidential candidate will be here to speak to the DNC; Governor Richardson and Senators Edwards, Dodd and Obama will speak to us in the morning session. In the afternoon, we’ll hear from Rep. Kucinich and Sens. Biden and Clinton. Speaker Pelosi will also be addressing us, and the DNC will also hear from a very special guest — Colorado Governor Bill Ritter — about the work we are doing to prepare Colorado for next August’s nomination of the next President of the United States.

Tomorrow is filled with a number of other meetings, as well. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will be meeting in the morning, and they always have interesting news. The Rural Council will be meeting, as well, and the Hispanic Caucus will be electing a new chair. We will conclude on Saturday morning, with a few more caucus meetings and other trainings.

I’ll write about today’s meetings this evening. Again, though, try to record the DNC meeting tomorrow — the candidates really work hard to put together a good speech for the DNC meetings, since all of us are automatically delegates to the national convention and they want our votes.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

I forgot a couple of VERY key points in the last post that Colorado Democrats need to know about the hotel assignments (for those on e-mail, my apologies for three in one day).

First, please, please, please do not call the Grand Hyatt in a mad dash to book your rooms. They won’t have any. All of the rooms have already been set aside by the DNC for the Host Committee. A barrage of phone calls to the Grand Hyatt will just unnecessarily upset their staff. Furthermore, if you think you may be a delegate, don’t worry. If you are elected a delegate, you will have a room if you want it (and want to pay for it — they aren’t free). Instructions on how to reserve your room within the DNC / CDP room block will come to you with plenty of time once you are elected in May.

Furthermore, please, please, please don’t call the Colorado Democratic Party about the room block. While the CDP has some degree of control over the room block, nearly every room in our block will be taken by delegates, alternates, and standing committee members. Any rooms left over will go to other key elected officials. No matter how much you push or beg, Sherry Jackson, Pat Waak and everybody else at Headquarters just can’t make a room appear. If something changes, the Party will make an announcement — but that is unlikely to happen.

Finally, if you really, really want to be a part of the delegation fun at the Grand Hyatt, while we can’t promise you a room, we can reserve a place for you at the always-exciting delegation breakfasts. Every year, we have national figures stop by and chat with our delegates while we eat breakfast and hear of plans for the day. In 2004, for example, we had members of the Kerry family, Senator Max Cleland, fmr. Sec’y of State Madeline Albright, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Donna Brazile, and Sen. Tom Daschle each address us during breakfast. Demand for such a spot will be heavy (delegates and their families, of course, will be welcome to all delegation events such as this for free), so the price to attend is reflective of the demand. You can become an Ambassador and be a part of every delegation breakfast, or you can become a Host and attend one delegation breakfast. For more information about either of these wonderful (and limited) opportunities, go to the CDP website at:
http://www.coloradodems.us/events/dineatourtable

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

As I indicated at the end of my post earlier today, the DNCC has announced the housing assignments for the Democratic National Convention in Denver next August.

First, some background: Somewhere between 17,000 and 19,000 rooms across Denver have been blocked off by hotels in the metro area for the Convention. Of these, around 6,000 to 7,000 are set aside for state delegations. The ones that are set aside for delegations are all in one of three areas: Downtown, Tech Center, and Stapleton. This summer, nearly every state sent a representative to Denver to tour hotels in those three areas and make their preferences known to the DNCC. Since September, the DNCC has been working on a complicated puzzle, trying to take into account the preferences of the delegations (some wanted close hotels, some wanted cheaper hotels, some wanted hotels with a lot of amenities, and some were limited to the largest hotels, etc.) and the available hotels.

Today, the DNCC announced the assignments.

For starters, the Colorado Delegation will be staying in a pretty good downtown spot: the Grand Hyatt. (Note that this is not the newer Hyatt Regency, which will be the DNC’s Headquarters Hotel; no delegation is staying there). Here’s an interesting point: normally, we share our hotel with one or two other delegations. In 2004, we shared the Wyndham in Boston with the Georgia delegation. However, according to the press release from the DNCC, no other delegation is staying at the Grand Hyatt. The full press release is available at:
http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/11/delegation_hote.html

Some other notes of interest:

– For the home states of our “front-runners” for the nomination, the New York delegation is staying at the Adams Mark; the Illinois delegation is at the Marriott City Center; the North Carolina delegation is at the Doubletree Denver Tech Center; and the New Mexico delegation will be at the Crowne Plaza, Downtown.
– California is also at the Adam’s Mark; Texas is at the Radisson Denver Southeast.
– Governor Dean’s Vermont delegation is at the Magnolia Hotel.
– Where will you see the most delegations? The Stapleton Doubletree and the Four Points by Sheraton, Southeast both have four delegations each staying at their properties. Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota are staying at the Stapleton Doubletree; Alaska, Minnesota, Puerto Rico and Rhode Island are at the Four Points Southeast.
– Our neighbors besides New Mexico? Wyoming is the Hyatt Place at the Denver Tech Center; Utah (who got the first priority during the lottery) is at the Warwick; Arizona is at the Hyatt Regency in the Tech Center; Oklahoma is at the Embassy Suites Southeast; Kansas is at the Doubletree Tech Center; and Nebraska is also at the Embassy Suites Southeast.
– Finally, if you want to see some of the Party’s rising stars, you should hang out near the Wyndham at the Tech Center or the Downtown Courtyard by Marriott around breakfast time. The New Hampshire delegation is staying at the Wyndham; the Iowa delegation has the Downtown Courtyard. Aspiring presidential hopefuls beyond 2008 often work to stop by each of those two delegations to speak to their delegation breakfast meetings.

Whew! With every passing day, this dream of holding the National Convention in Denver becomes more and more real, doesn’t it?