Continuing with my weekend catch up visits to outlying areas, I was down in the Southwest in late April. On Saturday, the 26th, I met with about fifteen good Democrats in Cortez. In addition to the officers, like chair Toni Gurnea, Hazel Perkins, chair of the Dolores County Democrats, drove over with husband, Delano. We had a great morning talking about the statewide turnout for caucuses and all the work going forward for the campaigns in 2008.

Montezuma County Democrats are growing again and excited about rebuilding their local party after some rough times. They sent a table full of people over to Durango for the evening dinner.

In Durango, the La Plata County Democrats filled the room with tables and enough excitement to raise the roof. Jean Walters, Chair of the local Democrats, led off an evening of speeches. Wally White has launched his campaign for re-election as County Commissioner. And Peter Tregillus is also running for another commissioner seat. I know that Joelle Riddle, who won in 2006, is eager to keep Wally and have another Democrat on the county commission.

State Sen. Jim Isgar had a chance to talk about the accomplishments of the current legislative session. U.S. Rep. John Salazar also gave an update from the U.S. Congress. But the highlight of the evening was former Texas Agriculture Commissioner, author, and radio show celebrity, Jim Hightower. He gave his usual humorous assessment of the issues, even though he is quite serious about the need for us to “agitate.”

I got to say my words and then ran in to Jim Hightower the next morning. We talked about the changes going on across the country.

On my way to Otero I stopped off at the CD6 Assembly and Convention. The turnout was great but put huge demands on the credentialing system. We learned a lot and elected our first delegates to the national convention.

CD6 also nominated Hank Eng as the Democratic nominee for Congress. Steve Clark and Ivan Botvin were candidates as well, and we thank them for stepping up. Hank received an overwhelming 88% of the vote, which is a tribute to his hard work over the past few months. Hank has a great background, including some similarities to mine - former Peace Corps Volunteer and former USAID employee. He will work hard to earn the support of voters in the district.

This past weekend I attended the annual Tri-County JFK dinner in La Junta, along with 160 other guests. Otero County Democrats presented a check for $500 to me for the state convention. Hooray for Otero County Dems!!! They also gave checks to State Rep. Wes McKinley and the local commissioner candidates.

Rep. McKinley was the evening emcee. Speaker Andrew Romanoff talked about the state legislative session. He did his usual great job.

Betsy Markey talked about her Congressional race in CD4. We are so lucky to have Betsy as our candidate. She will be officially nominated on May 16, but she already is working really hard across the district.

I followed Betsy and talked about the process, the upcoming state and national conventions. It was a message that Democrats in this part of the state were eager to hear. Then Sal Pace addressed the group about his House District race. Finally we heard from Ronnie Carleton on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Salalzar.

Thanks to Ed Morris for his fine work organizing the dinner. It was great to see Otero Chair Diane Ritkoff. I also had a chance to talk to Crowley Democratic Chair, Tom Flores, about the fires around Ordway. And I sat between Mayor Lawrence Sena, former Bent County Chair, and Alex Netherton, current Bent County Chair. It is the best part of being CDP Chair, being able to spend time with hard-working Democrats throughout the state.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

I haven’t posted to DemNotes since the end of the county assemblies and conventions. That’s been a few weeks now, so I’m sorry that I’ve not gotten any more posts out since then. In the interim, I have been busy on a number of things, including preparations for the State Convention and Assembly in Colorado Springs, working on delegate selection, the national convention, and a few other things.

I’ve also taken some time to get some work done at my “real” job that had been piling up.

The one thing I did that I really do want to write about was emceeing the announcement for Lt. Col. Hal Bidlack, who is our candidate for Congress in the 5th CD. There was a great turnout at the Penrose Library in Colorado Springs a couple of weeks ago — well over 100 people showed up in the middle of a weekday to witness a great American announce his candidacy for Congress. Hal is a wonderful candidate — smart, funny, personable — and he will really make a run at this seat, building on the foundation set by the great run of Jay Fawcett in 2006.

State Chair Pat Waak was there, as was Mark Udall’s niece, Taryn Udall (who announced Congressman Udall’s endorsement of Hal). There’s even already a “Veterans for Bidlack” group out there working to build up support for Hal throughout this military-minded district. Many Republicans are realizing their mistake in electing Doug Lamborn to Congress, and they’re coming over — most for the first times in their lives — to support Hal Bidlack in his bid for this seat.

Hal could use some help all across this state. Take a second to go over to his website, and if you can afford to, drop him a donation or two:
http://www.bidlack2008.com/

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On a completely other note, the Denver 2008 Host Committee announced tonight where the fun spots will be for the Sunday night immediately prior to the National Convention. The Host Committee is responsible for the delegation welcoming parties for each delegation. I’ll post the full list below, but here are some highlights:

– In one of the worst-kept secrets around, it was confirmed that Colorado’s delegation party will, appropriately, be at the Governor’s Mansion.
– If you’re interested in rubbing elbows with those closest to the nominee, you will need to find a spot near the Denver Art Museum (Illinois) or the Pinnacle Club (New York).
– Or how about a party at Red Rocks? If you’re in the delegations from North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or West Virginia, you’ll get it!
– Gov. Dean is likely going to be at the Phipps Mansion, where the Vermont and New Hampshire delegation parties will be.
– Want a world-wise atmosphere? Check out the Blair Caldwell Library, where the Democrats Abroad (as well as the Virgin Islands) will be hanging out.
– The District of Columbia has a pretty large delegation due to all of the At-Large (and influential) superdelegates they have (think Donna Brazile); they’ll be at the Museo de las Americas.
– Only twelve states have their own welcoming party: The aforementioned Colorado, District of Columbia, Illinois, and New York, as well as South Carolina, Georgia, Kansas, Iowa, California, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Texas. The rest of the delegations share parties with other delegations.

Now here’s the full list from the Host Committee:

List of State Delegation Party Venues:
Belmar Center - Alaska, Indiana, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Tennessee
Blair Caldwell Library - Democrats Abroad, Virgin Islands
Botanic Gardens - South Carolina
Center for the Visual Arts - Georgia
Colorado History Museum - Arkansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin
Denver Art Museum - Illinois
Denver Chophouse - Kansas
Denver Public Library - Iowa
Denver Zoo - Alabama, North Dakota, South Dakota
Downtown Aquarium - Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri
Exdo Event Center - California
Grant Humphries - Minnesota
Governor’s Mansion - Colorado
Hudson’s Gardens - New Jersey
The Lab at Belmar - American Samoa, Guam, Idaho, Hawaii
Museo de las Americas - District of Columbia
Museum of Nature & Science - Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah
Palazzo Verdi - Nebraska, Oklahoma
Phipps Mansion - New Hampshire, Vermont
Phipps Pavilion - Mississippi, Montana, Wyoming
Pinnacle Club - New York
Red Rocks - North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia
Wildlife Experience - Texas
Wings Over the Rockies - Arizona, Louisiana, Maryland, Oregon, Washington

Let me make one thing clear, though. While I joke about where “you” want to be that night, these will be open only to the delegations listed, and guests of those delegations. You can’t just walk up, say, to the Denver Art Museum and get in.

Anyway, I’ll try to write a little more frequently; see you all around!

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Wednesday was quite a day for driving.

I began the day with a drive up to Boulder for the monthly luncheon of the Boulder Democratic Women’s Club. State Chair Pat Waak and I were speakers. It was a robust crowd — over 200 present, including Joan Fitz-Gerald and Jared Polis, who are running for Congress in the 2nd Congressional District. A number of local candidates and elected officials were also present.

Pat and I both spoke about a number of issues, and then we took several questions from the audience after our talks. Most of the questions surrounded the Presidential race, and our roles as Superdelegates. Pat reiterated her long-standing view that her role as the chair of the host state party for the National Convention is to stay neutral for as long as possible. We faced questions about the tenor of the campaign, about Michigan and Florida, and about our two remaining candidates. It was a very refreshing and stimulating discussion, and a nice change of pace from all of the different county assemblies and conventions we’ve been attending lately.

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After Boulder, I headed back to Canon City — literally just long enough to stop at my law office and check the mail — before getting back on the road to head south to Walsenburg. There, I attended the Huerfano County Democratic Assembly and Convention.

Walsenburg hosted another good crowd of Democrats. I kicked off the meeting with a short speech, and then they moved into the convention portion of the program. Several people spoke about their choices for President before taking the preference poll — most were very respectful of the other candidates, although there was one who tried to quote from a supermarket tabloid in opposition to one of the candidates. In the end, the vote was 30 to 20 in favor of Sen. Obama, giving him 7 of the county’s votes to 4 for Sen. Clinton.

County Chair Cindy Campbell, who was leaving the post due to health reasons, did an outstanding job getting through the county convention, and there seemed to be a truly positive atmosphere there when I left.

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But I wasn’t done yet. After leaving Walsenburg, I raced up to Pueblo, where I was the guest on the CSU-Pueblo student radio station’s political talk show. “Rev 89,” as the station is called, is not your average college radio station. I don’t know the current ratings, but when I first moved back to Southern Colorado a few years ago, it was the top-rated station in the Pueblo market, beating out all of the commercial radio stations.

The show was very interesting — the three co-hosts are pretty equally divided: one is an Obama supporter, one is a Clinton supporter, and one is a McCain supporter. Over the hour that I was on the show, we talked about a number of issues, and I used every opportunity to point out the differences between Sen. McCain and our two candidates. We talked about the state of the Presidential race, and my role as a Superdelegate and DNC Member. The co-hosts were unbelievably well-prepared, with notes on a number of very divergent issues on which they wanted to talk. I was impressed, and the hour went quickly, and was very entertaining.

By then, it was late, and I had to head home to Canon City — bone tired. Tonight, as I’ve mentioned before, I’m off to Southeast Colorado for a pair of assemblies / conventions. Maybe I’ll see you there!

Because of the intense interest in unpledged delegates, I asked Phil McNamara of the DNC to give us a little history. His comments follow:

“Super delegates — or as they are technically known ‘unpledged delegates’ — were first introduced by the Party in 1982 for the 1984 nominating cycle.

These individuals serve as delegates because of some prominent office they hold or have held. While unpledged delegates probably do have a presidential preference, this is not a factor in why they are delegates. Rather, they serve as delegates because the Democratic Party wants the important perspective they bring to the decision-making process at the National Convention.

In recommending the creation of unpledged delegates the Commission on Presidential Nomination (the Hunt Commission) sought a way to more effectively bring elected official and Party leader participation back into the Convention. The Hunt Commission found that elected officials made up just 14% of the total delegates at the 1980 Convention.

Political scientist William Crotty wrote about the super delegates in 1983 and said the following:

‘As presented to the Hunt Commission, then, the gains from increased participation in nomination decision-making by party professionals would be substantial:

These leaders and officials, as experienced politicians, would bring seasoned and sensitive judgment to the selection of a nominee and to the conduct of other party business.

Convention participation would create stronger ties between the party and its officeholders, promoting a unified campaign strategy and teamwork in government.

The inclusion of more elected officials would strengthen the party’s ties to their constituencies and its broad mainstream approval.’

Also DNC member Elaine Kamarck has a pretty good historical background of super delegates on the Harvard Kennedy School website. Link is:

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/ksgnews/Features/opeds/021408_kamarck.htm

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Last night, I drove down to Alamosa to give caucus training to the San Luis Valley counties. While I did not take a roll call, I recognized folks from pretty much every county in the Valley: Alamosa, Saguache, Costilla, Conejos, and Rio Grande were all well-represented there. The crowd was huge — about 100 people packed the standing-room only conference room at the Alamosa Recreation Center.

Prior to my caucus presentation, Sky Gallegos with the DNCC spoke about the Democratic National Convention in Denver. It was a “Convention Conversation,” which has been taking place statewide. Originally, Chair Pat Waak was to assist Gallegos, but Pat was in Texas due to the death of her father. After Gallegos’ presentation, she took a number of questions from the audience, many of which focused on what folks in the San Luis Valley could do to help the convention effort and to draw conventioneers to the Valley either before or after the Convention.

I missed the first half-hour or so of the convention presentation, primarily because MapQuest (and Google Maps, and BlackBerry Maps) all sent me about six miles south of Alamosa, to some remote, dirt-road location. I don’t know how, but after driving back into town, I just came across the Recreation Center and made it on time for my presentation.

Between my presentation and Sky’s presentation, folks heard from Darryl Grant, who is the DNC’s Field Organizer for the Southwest portion of the state. Darryl showed the group a video from the DNC explaining the 2008 field program and the role of neighborhood volunteers in that program.

Also before my presentation, there was a break for snacks. Among the things available were two six-foot long Subway sandwiches. One would have imagined that would be enough. One would be wrong.

The crowd was so big (and hungry, apparently) that the sandwiches were devoured in a matter of minutes. When I finally got to the refreshment table to grab a bite myself, I was greeted with a couple of crumbs of bread and some lettuce remnants.

The vanishing sandwiches were another reminder of what I’ve seen this year in Colorado. This was my last scheduled caucus training — we have 12 days left now until February 5. One thing has been confirmed: the phenomenon of Democratic interest in the caucuses in 2008 is a statewide phenomenon. Whether in Estes Park, Canon City, Rocky Ford, Montrose, Frisco, Pagosa Springs, or Pueblo, there is an intensity about things that we’ve not seen in recent years. I spoke briefly yesterday with CDP Executive Director Sherry Jackson — I say “briefly,” because she did not have time to talk. The phone at the State Party headquarters is almost literally ringing off the hook. There is now talk of needing more lines at headquarters to deal with all of the phone calls in recent days dealing with the caucuses. I’ve never seen anything like it.

One last point: Nevada is a good comparison to Colorado. In 2004, when their caucuses did not matter, they had 9,000 people attend statewide. In comparison, Colorado had around 12,000-15,000 Democrats attend statewide in 2004. In 2008, caucus attendance in Nevada spiked to around 144,000 Democrats! If Colorado saw even half of that kind of spike, we’re in for an exciting year!

The real test, as I’ve been telling groups in caucus training, will be whether we can keep these new people after February 5. If we can keep these new people involved, active, and interested through September and October, we will have an ability to change the debate and the elections in November. If we can pass that test, we truly will be turned completely blue in 2008!

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at: www.DemNotes.com)

Monday night, I drove over Hoosier Pass (and back) to conduct caucus training for Summit Dems (and a couple of folks from Lake County, as well, including Lake County Chair Joe Fattor). Maybe I should have known that I was in trouble when I walked in and former Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald made fun of the bag I was carrying — a leopard-print computer bag that resembles a purse awfully closely. (My laptop, while an awesome machine, apparently has a graphics card problem that causes it not to work when attached to a projector; therefore, I have to use my girlfriend’s computer to do presentations.)

In any event, soon after arriving, Sandy Briggs, the Summit County chair, asked if I was ready to go. I then asked if he had a projector for me. His response was a blank look.

As you may have noticed, I’ve been doing a lot of these caucus trainings lately. Indeed, I have been so busy, I’ve had to turn down recent requests to come up to Clear Creek County and Kit Carson County later this week because of other events. These trainings usually happen one of two ways: either the county contacts me directly to arrange for the training, or it is arranged by one of the DNC Field Organizers, such as the great trainings in Larimer and Weld Counties on Friday and Saturday that were arranged by DNC Field Organizer Robin Van Ausdall. However, in Summit County’s instance, the discussion was started by the Northwest Field Organizer Kim Phillips, but I made the final arrangements (or so I thought) with the county party.

And I dropped the ball — I forgot to mention that I’d need a projector.

Thankfully, Flo Raitano was on the ball. She immediately left to go home and grab her own projector from her home in Frisco. I began the presentation, and by the time I needed the projector for the more complicated math portions, Flo had returned and seamlessly set up the projector and the computer so I went right into the caucus math portion of the presentation without a pause. There were easily 50-60 folks there (or at least that’s what I’d estimate — as you will see later, my estimates have sometimes been waaaay under), and we had a great discussion of the various intricacies of caucus night.

Summit County already has local representatives for the Clinton, Obama, and Edwards campaigns. After my presentation, folks then gathered with each of the representatives to sign up and help each of the campaigns prepare for the caucuses.

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By the way, in a recent post, I think I mentioned that there were around 150 people in attendance at the Larimer Dems training in Loveland. I was wrong. The county party did an actual head count, and the number of people there was much closer to 300, not 150. So much for my math skills!

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Last night, I headed east — to Rocky Ford. There, I conducted a caucus training at the Otero Dems’ central committee meeting (with a couple of Crowley Dems in attendance, as well). It was another good training session, with about 30 people present to hear about caucuses. As always, there were some great questions, and First Vice Chair Larry Daves did a wonderful job running the meeting.

After my presentation, our new DNC Regional Field Organizer for Southeast Colorado, Sal Pace, spoke about the DNC’s field efforts. He did a great job describing the new neighborhood organizer program, and he even got over half of the people in the room to sign up to serve as neighborhood leaders! Our DNC Field Organizers have very specific goals for getting people involved in this program — and we need your help to make it successful. The DNC is committed to having the most effective field organization in the history of the Democratic Party in 2008, and its success depends on the involvement of all active Democrats.

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Tonight, I get to stay in Canon City — but I don’t get to rest. Instead, I will be speaking at a very special Drinking Liberally event in Canon City. We’ll have representatives from several campaigns there to speak and answer questions; here are the details:

What: Drinking Liberally: An Evening with the Campaigns
When: Wed, January 16th, 5:30-7:30, presentations begin at 6
Where: McClellan’s Grill & Brewing Company, 413 Main St

If you get a chance, come on down to Canon City and enjoy an evening with us!

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

First, an apology: As many of you know, I was in Northern Virginia a couple of weekends ago for the Winter DNC Meeting. I promised to blog about all of the Presidential candidates and their speeches. I actually spent about 45 minutes writing a very long and detailed post that evening; however, when I hit the “Submit” button on my WordPress site, everything disappeared. I had not backed any of it up. I completely lost all of it. I have not had any time since then to re-create it, and now it is kind of late to do so.

To summarize, though, the candidates did a wonderful job. While I have endorsed Senator Obama, each of our candidates reinforced my feeling that we will be well-served by whomever we select as our nominee in Denver in August. There was also a lot of concern in the hall for the reports of the hostage situation at Senator Clinton’s office in New Hampshire, and I can tell you that I had a short conversation with the New Hampshire Chair, Ray Buckley, later that evening — he looked both exhausted from the day’s stresses and relieved that the hostages all got out without physical harm.

It was a great DNC meeting, and the last one before we meet again the day after the Convention adjourns in Denver in August.

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Saturday was an opportunity for our State Central Committee and State Executive Committee to meet and get some last-minute business done before the caucuses. There was not anything really controversial going on, but we still had a great crowd anyway — even with snow falling throughout the state. That really impressed me — we used to wring our hands to make quorum at meetings just a few years ago, but even with bad weather and no controversy, we still made quorum easily for both meetings. Some of that is due to a rules change I helped bring about that changed the way we calculate quorum, but I think that a greater reason for it is that we have more folks who are truly excited about the opportunities we have to change Colorado and to change America in 2008 and beyond.

We approved the 2008 CDP budget — and we also noted that 2007 was the best off-year for fundraising in our Party’s post-Amendment 27 history. Rep. Mark Ferrandino, our extraordinarily capable and diligent Treasurer, attended his last meeting as Treasurer as we selected another quite able-bodied soul to fill his spot: Adams County Dems’ Treasurer Butch Hicks. I worked with Butch on the Site Selection Committee, and I know he will do an outstanding job as our new Treasurer, although he does have huge shoes to fill.

We handled a few other housekeeping items — a couple of minor rules changes, and formal approval of the delegate allocation to the counties for the State Assembly and Convention. Several Presidential campaigns had representatives there (Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Kucinich), and we also heard from our Congressional candidates in attendance. Senate President Peter Groff gave his first speech to the Central Committee in that role, and we also heard from the always-eloquent Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Finally, we heard some inspirational words about our role as the host state party for the National Convention from DNCC CEO Leah Daughtry.

After those meetings, three of the Congressional Districts held their meetings. The 2nd CD had a packed meeting where they debated when and where to hold their Convention and Assembly, finally deciding to hold it a couple of weeks prior to the State Convention and Assembly, in Westminster. Following those meetings, there was VAN training, and I led a training for some county party leaders on how to prepare for and hold the caucuses and county convention / assembly.

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A few other notes:

First, several people have asked me when I will be giving the next caucus trainings. While we are still working on a few other dates to firm up, here are the ones that have been set. On Friday evening, Jan. 11, I will be doing a training in Estes Park. The following day, Jan. 12, I will be conducting trainings for Larimer Dems in Loveland and for Weld Dems in Greeley. On Sunday, January 13, I will then be doing training in Park County, at the Jefferson Community Center. On Monday, January 14, at 7 pm, I will be doing training in Summit County (I’m assuming I will be in Frisco). The following evening, January 15, I will be doing the training in Rocky Ford. Then, on Saturday, January 19, I will be doing training here at home in Canon City, for Fremont County and the surrounding counties. Finally, on Wednesday evening, January 23, I will be conducting training for the counties in HD 63 in Alamosa.

So far, those are the ones that have been affirmatively scheduled. If you’d like for me to come to your area, please drop me a note and we’ll try to find a date that works well for everybody.

Second, Jay Fawcett, who ran an outstanding campaign for the 5th CD, and who forced the Republican Party to spend hundreds of thousands of national dollars on a district that they assumed was safe, is working hard to retire his debt from that campaign. Here’s a note from Jay:

ActBlue has reactivated my campaign account for the purpose of debt relief. I made a principled decision to pay all vendors and salaries first and I succeeded. But that leaves the campaign owing me about $70,000 I have been asking support to get to $50,000 on ActBlue by 15 December, after that I close out the campaign and move on. Any help and suggestions you can provide will be appreciated. Please spread the word and the web site.

Jay Fawcett

http://www.actblue.com/page/fawcett4congress

If you can, please visit the ActBlue site and help Jay as much as you can. I know he will appreciate it.

Coming back from the DNC meeting, we had the opportunity to hit the ground running. Monday night Sky Gallegos, Deputy CEO for Intergovernmental Relations of the DNCC, and I conducted a community forum in Fort Collins. It was standing room only, with representatives from Larimer, Weld and Morgan Counties in attendance.

The meetings that Sky and I are doing include an opportunity to discuss what will happen at the Democratic National Convention next year, as well as caucus training and the DNC’s Neighorhood Leader program. The questions were centered around volunteering and ways to promote your local community to incoming visitors. For some fun commentary, check out www.demconvention.com. They have a blog with video interviews.

However, the caucus training was important as well. About 60% of the audience had been to caucus before. The rest were really learning about caucuses and how to become delegates. Adam Bowen, Larimer County Democratic Chair, said that there were lots of new faces in the crowd. And we recruited about 15 new neighborhood leaders.

On Tuesday, Dick Wadhams and I made presentations to the Denver Lions Club. A packed lunchtime group listened to us talk about the importance of caucuses in Colorado and the changes we expect to see with the coming year’s participation. My prediction is that we will have a record turnout in 2008 because of all the Presidential candidates working in the state, the early date for our caucuses, and the interest in becoming a delegate to the National Democratic Convention in Denver.

On Wednesday, over 200 people gathered at A Spice of Life conference center in Boulder. The DNCC held a community conversation with Leah Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC, and Rep. Alice Madden, Colorado House Majority Leader. The big announcement was the introduction of Andrea Robinson, who will be in charge of “greening” the national convention. I also had a few moments to explain the caucuses and how one could become a delegate.

Other upcoming events:
1) The Colorado State Executive Committee and State Central Committee will be meeting on Saturday to approve next year’s budget, elect a new treasurer, and handle party business.

2) There will be Faith and Politics House Parties on Monday evening. On Tuesday of next week, we will host a larger meeting at the CDP at 6:30 P.M. Rev. Terri Lavelle and John Kelly from the DNC’s Faith in Action Project will be here.

3) The Faith and Politics Seminar is scheduled for January 12, 2008 at Iliff School of Theology. Speakers will include Leah Daughtry, Governor Bill Ritter, Rep. Terrance Carroll, Rep. Morgan Carroll and Rep. Jim Reisberg.

4) Sky Gallegos and I will be hosting a community conversation and training in Durango, Sunday, Dec. 9, 2007 at the Durango Community Recreation Center (Peaks Room). The event will go from 1:00 P.M. to 3:00 P.M.

5) I will be visiting with Montezuma County Dems in Cortez at The Main Bookstore in Cortez at 10:00 A.M. on Monday, Dec. 10, 2007.

6) And I will be having dinner with the Dolores County Dems at the Blue Mountain Cafe in Dove Creek at 6:30 P.M. that evening.

Hope to see you at one of these events.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

This afternoon in Virginia, I spent my time in two “official” meetings and one not-so-official meeting. The Association of State Democratic Chairs met, followed by a very informal meeting of all of the state party vice-chairs, and then the day concluded with a meeting of the DNC Youth Council.

The ASDC meeting was the biggest chunk of the day. Pat, Sherry and I attended, and we heard from a number of folks about efforts in place for 2008. Governor Dean kicked off the meeting with a discussion of the challenges ahead in the 50-state program and what he is hoping to see from our field plan. Following Governor Dean, the Party Chairs and Vice Chairs heard from a representative each from Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid’s offices. They discussed the many successes of the Congress, the challeges posed by Republican obstructionism (they were described as the G.O.P. - the “Grand Obstruction Party”), and the problems facing the leadership in getting this message out to the average American.

The congressional staff were followed by Ben Self, who is the DNC Technology Director, who gave us an impressive update of the efforts made to continue the improvement of VoteBuilder (a/k/a VAN). We finally heard from some of the national convention staff, who discussed the next 30-60 days for state parties as they make plans to come to Denver. Of particular interest was Tina Akintayo, who is the DNCC Director of Housing. All of us from Colorado have been getting questions about the housing assignments (is the hotel nice? is it near the Convention Center? etc…) In the end, though, I believe I heard Tina say on a conference call last week that every delegation got either its first or second choice for housing, so I think folks will be generally happy.

Following the ASDC meeting, the Vice Chairs got together for an informal session to discuss our work in the various states and share ideas. We had a nearly hour-long discussion, with a pledge to do something even more organized the next time the ASDC meets.

I then went over to the Youth Council meeting. There are about 20 or fewer members of the DNC aged 35 or younger. For the next 8 months, I am one of those lucky few. This meeting was a truly lively discussion of efforts to include youth outreach in each of the Presidential campaigns and further efforts to reach out to young people who want to be delegates to the National Convention. Representatives from several presidential campaigns were there, and the discussion — while noisy at times — was very productive, I think.

Tomorrow is the big day for speeches. I’ll write more about that tomorrow.

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Sorry for the length of this post, but the NCEC (National Center for an Effective Congress), who does a lot of data crunching and vote analysis on a precinct-by-precinct level for Democrats, has just issued a short analysis of the state of Colorado politics. It is very interesting, and speaks volumes about the work of Democrats in counties like Douglas, Arapahoe, and Larimer counties. Mike Piel from the NCEC forwarded it to me, and gave me permission to post it to DemNotes. Again, I realize it is long, but it is good reading (even if it does skip CD-5):

Colorado Trending Blue
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity. In the last two election cycles, Democrats have captured two House seats, a Senate seat, the governorship, and control of both houses of the state legislature. This transformation is symptomatic of a wider development across the country that has Republican strategists deeply concerned. In short, Democrats are performing vastly better in suburban and exurban areas, and this development has put Republicans on the defensive. Colorado ’s nine electoral votes could be immensely important to Democratic presidential aspirations, and the fate of the state could serve as a strong bellwether indicator of the larger race. Colorado will more than ever be a focal point of the national election in 2008. Not only is the presidential election expected to be solidly competitive, but there is also an open Senate race, two open-seat House races, and five potentially competitive House races. In the past two cycles, Democrats have experienced increasing success in key suburban and exurban areas such as Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, leaving rural counties as the only staunchly conservative areas left for the GOP.

One of the most important factors in the increased Democratic success in Colorado is the growing support for the party in suburban areas previously dominated by Republicans. Arapahoe County is a solid example of this evolution. Since 2000, the voting-age population of Arapahoe County has increased by more than 42,000, and this increase has dramatically changed the voting habits of the county. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 43 percent of the vote in Arapahoe County . By 2002, Democratic support had increased to 46.5 percent in the Senate race. The trend of increased Democratic performance continued in 2004 and 2006. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried Arapahoe County with 52 percent of the vote, and Governor Bill Ritter outperformed Salazar in 2006 when he received nearly 60 percent of the vote (59.5 percent).

Douglas County , one of the fastest-growing counties in the country, also shows some of these positive Democratic trends. The voting-age population has increased by more than 69,000 since 2000. While the Democratic gains are not as pronounced as the shift seen in Arapahoe County , there has still been a boost in Democratic support. In 2000, Al Gore received just 31 percent of the vote in Douglas County . In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received 33 percent of the vote, a modest improvement. In 2004, Ken Salazar received more than 38 percent. The voting trend accelerated in 2006, as Governor Bill Ritter nearly carried Douglas County with more than 46 percent of the vote. While this county remains solid Republican, consistent Democratic gains in this large population center are a direct contributor to the recent success of Democrats in statewide elections.

Jefferson County , another rapidly growing population center home to more than 350,000 registered voters, has exhibited these same voting tendencies. Jefferson County was selected as the center and main voting contributor to the new Seventh Congressional District, which was added in 2002. The voting-age population has grown by 10,000 since 2000, and Democrats have been performing increasingly well there. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat, now controls the Seventh District; this would have been unthinkable ten years ago. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 44 percent of the vote in Jefferson County , but demographic shifts in the county have increased the Democratic share of the vote. In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland got more than 47 percent of the vote in Jefferson County . Ken Salazar won Jefferson County by 4 percent in 2004, and Bill Ritter amassed more than 59 percent of the vote in Jefferson County in 2006—making a 16 percent shift from 1996 to 2006.

A final example of this voting trend is Larimer County , which has seen some of the most drastic changes. Over the past seven years the voting-age population has grown by more than 24,000, and subsequent increases in Democratic support have been seen. In 2000, Al Gore got less than 40 percent of the vote in Larimer County , which is made up of rural, suburban, and exurban areas. A major shift was already evident in this county by 2002, when Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received more than 44 percent of the vote. The trend continues, as Ken Salazar won Larimer County with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. Bill Ritter won more than 58 percent of the vote in Larimer County in 2006, which represents an 18 percent surge in Democratic support from 2000–2006.

Implications for 2008

If current trends hold, Colorado will be a major player in the 2008 presidential race, as well as a golden opportunity for another Senate pickup for the Democrats. Beyond statewide races, there are competitive House races as well.

President : Democrats failed in 2004 largely because of their dependence on winning a great majority of the traditional presidential swing states, which left no room for error or a setback. In 2004, there were not enough targets. As the 2008 election approaches, Democrats should look to Colorado to expand the playing field. Picking up Colorado ’s nine electoral votes would be of great importance to the overall Western campaign strategy. John Kerry ended up 18 electoral votes shy of winning the presidency, which caused too much importance to be placed on Ohio . There are three states in the West that are expected to be competitive and that could offset the importance of Ohio and make winning there less crucial. If the Democratic candidate wins Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, all states that were decided by less than 5 percent in 2004, 19 electoral votes would be gained, which would be sufficient to make up for any potential defeat in Ohio. If present trends hold there is a good chance that Colorado could go to the Democrats for the first time since 1992.

Senate : Early polling and financial data are both extremely positive for Democrats in this Senate race. Mark Udall holds a significant advantage in money and (thus far) in support. A poll from Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling firm, had Udall ahead of Republican candidate Bob Schaffer by 5 percent (45-40). Other polling had Udall even further ahead. Udall can also count on the support of vastly popular Democratic Governor Bill Ritter. As alluded to before, increased Democratic performance in suburban areas has been paramount for recent success for Democrats. If this trend holds, Udall is certainly the favorite.

CO-02: Incumbent Mark Udall has vacated this seat to run for the Senate, but despite its open-seat status, this race is only “potentially competitive.” The major population centers in this district are in Adams, Boulder , Broomfield , and Jefferson counties. The Second District portions of Adams and Boulder counties are solidly Democratic. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried 58 percent of the Adams County portion of the district, and both Kerry and Salazar amassed 72 percent of the vote in Boulder County . Jefferson and Broomfield remain competitive, but Democrats have performed increasingly well there over the past few cycles. Ken Salazar carried the Second District portion of both counties in 2004, outpacing John Kerry by 5 percent in both counties. Republicans lack a candidate at present, so there is little chance that they will lose this district. Any one of the three potential Democratic candidates will most likely be able to hold on to this district.

CO-04: The Fourth District has been trending Democratic over the past three cycles. Marilyn Musgrave’s margin of victory has steadily decreased over the past three cycles, but 2006 might have been Democrats’ best chance to defeat her given the political environment. Angie Paccione lost by a mere 3 percent due to a number of factors.

Paccione performed well in Larimer County , which is essential for any Democrat. She amassed more than 54 percent of the major party vote, which was a large improvement over Stan Matsunaka’s performance in 2002 and 2004 when he failed to carry the county. In addition to Larimer County , Paccione performed reasonably well in Boulder County , receiving nearly 54 percent of the vote. However, in both Larimer County and Boulder County , Paccione ran well behind Governor Bill Ritter’s numbers, which suggests that even though she performed well in both these counties there is room for improvement. For example, Paccione received nearly 5 percent less than did Bill Ritter in Boulder County , and more than 3 percent less in Larimer County . Modest improvement in these counties could put this district increasingly in play.

Another factor that led to Paccione’s defeat is one that was symptomatic of many close defeats for Democrats in 2006: Democrats expanded their performance in urban and suburban areas, but did not improve in rural areas. The Fourth District comprises mainly rural counties where Paccione failed to improve on past cycles. For example, her share of the major party vote ran behind Stan Matsunaka’s 2004 share in Cheyenne , Logan , Morgan , Washington , Weld, and Yuma counties. Slightly increased performance in these counties would have given her a real chance to win the race.

Musgrave has toned down her rhetoric so far this term, which will make her more difficult to beat. However, slight improvements in rural areas, coupled with extended success in Boulder County and Larimer County , could flip this seat in 2008.

CO-06: Tom Tancredo’s retirement will make this a much more competitive race, but winning this gerrymandered district will take a strong moderate candidate who can attract a decent number of Republican votes. The Sixth District pulls in the most conservative parts of Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. In 2004, John Kerry and Ken Salazar ran well below their countywide percentages in the Sixth District portion of these counties. For example, Ken Salazar received 52 percent of the countywide vote in Arapahoe County in 2004, but just 47 percent in the Sixth District portion of the county. The same scenario played out in Jefferson County where Salazar performed more than 4 percent worse in the Sixth District portion of the county in comparison to his countywide performance. Mike Coffman’s entrance into the race will make this district even harder to win, but will lead to a Democrat taking the position of Secretary of State.

CO-07: Ed Perlmutter’s 13 percent victory in this district has led Republicans to essentially abandon the district. No opponent to Perlmutter has surfaced as of yet, and it is likely that he will be reelected.

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

We are now just about a month out from the first actual votes in the Presidential race (maybe even sooner - I understand that some absentee ballots in Feb. 5 states may be in voters’ hands as early as December). Iowa is revved up for January 3, and the Democratic Party is anxiously awaiting the results of the early primaries and caucuses (including Colorado’s Feb. 5 caucus) to see who our nominee will be.

I’m here in Vienna, Virginia — a suburb of Washington DC — for the Winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Several other Coloradans are here, as well. Last night, I enjoyed a couple of drinks with DNC Members Mannie Rodriguez and Maria Handley, as well as CDP Executive Director Sherry Jackson and DNC members from Kansas and New Mexico. Pat Waak stopped by on her way out to dinner to say hello, as well. No matter where you go around here, the talk is about the Presidential race; Mannie was doing everything he could to talk up his candidate, Senator Clinton, while the New Mexico folks were pressing hard to get in some of the finer points about why supporting Governor Richardson was so critical.

The meetings start slowly with a few this afternoon: the Association of State Democratic Chairs will meet, followed by the Resolutions Committee and the Youth and Senior Coordinating Councils. I spoke to the Senior Coordinating Council a couple of years ago about what we’re doing in Colorado, and I’m a member (at least until next July) of the Youth Coordinating Council.

Tomorrow, though, is the big show. Hopefully, you will get a chance to catch some of the meeting on C-SPAN. I believe the coverage will start around 8 am Mountain time. Nearly every Presidential candidate will be here to speak to the DNC; Governor Richardson and Senators Edwards, Dodd and Obama will speak to us in the morning session. In the afternoon, we’ll hear from Rep. Kucinich and Sens. Biden and Clinton. Speaker Pelosi will also be addressing us, and the DNC will also hear from a very special guest — Colorado Governor Bill Ritter — about the work we are doing to prepare Colorado for next August’s nomination of the next President of the United States.

Tomorrow is filled with a number of other meetings, as well. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will be meeting in the morning, and they always have interesting news. The Rural Council will be meeting, as well, and the Hispanic Caucus will be electing a new chair. We will conclude on Saturday morning, with a few more caucus meetings and other trainings.

I’ll write about today’s meetings this evening. Again, though, try to record the DNC meeting tomorrow — the candidates really work hard to put together a good speech for the DNC meetings, since all of us are automatically delegates to the national convention and they want our votes.