Archive for the ‘Presidential Campaign’ Category

Caucus Training this Weekend, and Excitement Builds for Caucuses!

Friday, January 11th, 2008 2:11 PM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

WARNING: If you are one of the four or five folks who have e-mailed me complaining about my support for a particular Presidential candidate, you may want to only read the first part of this post….

In an hour or so, I’ll leave Canon City and head north to do some more caucus training. I encourage you to come by if you are in the area — there should also be an opportunity at most of these events to learn more about the various Presidential campaigns, as well.

Tonight, I will be in Estes Park; here is the information on that event:

Fri, Jan 11; ESTES PARK DEMOCRATS WELCOME CANDIDATES & OFFER CAUCUS TRAINING

Estes Park Democrats will meet to hear from several Presidential campaigns, the Udall for Colorado campaign (for U.S. Senate), and Betsy Markey, candidate for Congress. The event also includes caucus training by Dan Slater, 1st Vice Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party.

The event is open to the public.

Date & Time: Fri, Jan. 11, 2008; 7:00 p.m.Location: Estes Park Municipal Building, 2nd Floor, rooms 202-3.

Contact: John & Karen Ericson, 586-5042

Tomorrow (Saturday), I then head to Loveland and Greeley for more training. Here is the information on the Loveland training, for 1:30ish:

Its Central Committee time again, and what a meeting this should be!

Dont miss it! 1:p.m. Official Business: Our official business is to approve a formula for determining how many delegates each precinct is allotted to go forward to the County Assembly and Convention. These delegates will be selected at precinct caucuses on Tuesday, Feb. 5. We also will fill officer vacancies of the Larimer County Democratic Party. Current members of the Larimer County Central Committee have received the OFFICIAL CALL and may vote. They include Party officers, directors, precinct committee people, and Democratic elected officials. All other Democrats are welcome to attend.

1:30 or 2 p.m. Caucus Training and Candidates for U.S. House and Senate; Dan Slater, First Vice Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party, will be on hand to conduct caucus training. Betsy Markey will attend and speak. Mark Udall will either attend or send a representative to speak on his behalf. Representatives of Presidential Campaigns: Representatives of five of the eight Democratic presidential campaigns will address our meeting. Those speakers will represent Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, and Bill Richardson. Come join your friends, meet the candidates and/or their representatives, and prepare for caucuses.

Central Committee Meeting Date & Time: Sat, Jan. 12, 1-1:30 p.m.

Caucus Training & Candidate Speeches: 1:30 +

Location: Bill Reed Middle School , 370 W. 4th St . , Loveland

And here is the Greeley information:

Caucus training is scheduled for January 12th, from 5:30-8 pm, at the University Center, Columbine Room, 11th Ave between 19th and 20th Street, Greeley. Colorado Democratic Party officials, including 1st Vice Chair Dan Slater, are expected to assist. Representatives of the presidential campaigns will have tables with information. Parking is available at the University Center; for directions, go to http://www.unco.edu/uncmap/.

Training resources will include a Colorado Democratic Party Caucus Rules Summary, Step-by-Step Caucus Agenda, Caucus Process Instructions, Presidential Preference Math Worksheet, Weld County Assembly Math Worksheet, Weld County Assembly/Convention Call and Delegate Form, and Nominating Process Flowchart.

Finally, I’ll be doing caucus training for Park County on Sunday. Here are the details for that event, if you can attend:

NEXT MEETING OF PARK COUNTY DEMOCRATS

January 13, 1:00 PM

Jefferson Community Center

The Public is Invited

The next meeting of the Park County Democrats will take place on Sunday, January 13, at the Jefferson Community Center. The meeting begins at 1:00 pm. The public is invited. There will be Caucus Training prior to the start of the Central Committee meeting. If you’re interested in the Caucus process and what exactly is involved, please come to this meeting.

The Jefferson Community Center is located in Jefferson along US Highway 285 about 15 miles northeast of Fairplay and 23 miles southwest of Bailey.

I’m not done on Sunday, though. On Monday, I’ll be in Frisco, and on Tuesday, I’ll be in Rocky Ford for caucus trainings for those two areas. Hopefully, I’ll have a chance to write about the details of those before Monday.

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Last night, we went up to Colorado Springs to attend the grand opening of the Obama for President office there. I’ve been to open houses and grand openings before, and I expected maybe 20-30 folks there. Boy, was I surprised! A reporter I was standing next to estimated at least 250 people in attendance. I don’t think there was room for any more people there in that office — it was one of the more impressive sights I’ve seen lately.

Several folks spoke and were recognized, including former El Paso County chairs Ed Raye and Mark Johnson. The place was so packed, they had to do the speeches and information twice — once for one room, and again a second time for the another room of people. It was really impressive to see this level of support in Colorado Springs, of all places, for a Democratic candidate.

Well, I need to head off to Estes Park. Maybe I’ll see you there!

After Last Night, Colorado Matters Even More!

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008 11:04 AM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

What an exciting night last night for the Democratic Party! Again, we saw record numbers of people vote in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. And again, we saw a close race among some amazing candidates for the Democratic nomination.

As most of you know, I’ve endorsed Senator Barack Obama (and was proud to welcome yesterday the second Colorado SuperDelegate to the Obama Campaign, when Congressman Perlmutter endorsed Senator Obama, as well). So it was with some mixed emotions that I watched the votes come in last night. Obviously, I would have liked to have seen Senator Obama win the New Hampshire Primary; however, such a win would probably have meant that there would be a lot less riding on the Colorado Caucus on February 5. Now, when the candidates roll into town next month, Colorado will matter.

There’s a lot of speculation about what will happen in the two contests between now and February 5, but one thing is for certain: regardless of the outcomes in Nevada and South Carolina, we won’t have a “presumptive nominee” by super-duper-tsunami-Tuesday in February. That means candidates for President will have to come to Colorado in the next month to stump for votes. That means that staffers will have to spend time organizing precincts in Colorado. That means that each of you in Colorado will be asked — perhaps by multiple campaigns — to help get your friends and neighbors out for your candidates.

We’ve already seen a lot of this. Senator Clinton has a state office with staff and a very competent state director, Tyler Chaffee. They are doing caucus trainings statewide. Senator Obama was the first candidate with staff in Colorado (Ray Rivera is his energized and amazing state director), and has opened a number of offices statewide (there will be several new offices holding grand openings tomorrow — I will be in Colorado Springs for their grand opening, but they are also opening offices tomorrow in Pueblo, Boulder and Fort Collins — with more to come on the Western Slope, from what I hear). Both campaigns have been active phone-banking, making tens of thousands of calls and identifying tens of thousands of people for the caucus. While I have not yet heard of staff in Colorado for John Edwards, he has several chapters of his volunteer “OneCorps” around the state. Governor Richardson, Senator Gravel and Representative Kucinich all also have a presence in Colorado, with state coordinators for each campaign in place.

Historically, we’ve usually had between ten and twenty thousand Democrats statewide attending caucus — in a good year. I’ve been telling people to expect somewhere around forty to fifty thousand Democrats statewide, but now, I’m not sure we shouldn’t be looking at numbers closer to 100,000. Such a turnout would be beyond historic — it would be phenomenal (that would be about one in every 8 or 9 Democrats attending a caucus)!

So, here’s my message: get ready! In the next few weeks — especially the last week of January and the first few days leading up to February 5, you are going to see a lot of activity in the Centennial State. You are sure to see Senators Clinton and Obama make stops in Colorado, as well as the other candidates. And I’d bet you’ll even see a few television ads hit the airwaves. In the end, we’ll come together and support our nominee, but until then, get out and support your favorite candidate and help make February 5 a ground-shaking event in Colorado that will be heard across the nation!

Where is my Precinct Caucus?

Friday, January 4th, 2008 11:22 AM by Dan Slater

(cross-posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Just yesterday, I received four e-mails from individuals who wanted to know where their precinct caucuses will be held on February 5. For those of you who are new to the process, Colorado will be holding precinct caucuses for both the Democratic and Republican parties all across the State of Colorado on Tuesday night, February 5, at 7:00 p.m.

First of all, to find out your caucus locations, many counties already have their locations online at the Colorado Democratic Party website:
http://coloradodems.org/content/view/616

If you don’t see your county’s locations there, try the county party’s website, if they have one. You can see a list of all of the county parties, including their websites if they have one, here:
http://coloradodems.org/content/view/484/76/

Finally, if your county party does not have a website, use that latter page to find out the county party officers, and give one of them a call or e-mail. They should be able to answer your questions. But, be aware, some counties are still finalizing a few caucus locations; I heard that Douglas County was just finalizing their last caucus center location yeterday. (By the way, if you are a county party leader, be sure to send the locations of your caucuses to the State Party, as well as to your county clerk, as many voters may go to one of those two sources to find out where to caucus.)

After figuring out where you go, you need to make sure you clear your calendar for the evening of February 5. As we saw last night in Iowa, Democrats are more “fired up” this cycle (sorry, couldn’t avoid the reference for those who get it) than in years past. Even in Iowa, where voters had seemingly become jaded with the attention they receive, turnout nearly doubled from 2004.

Here in Colorado, we need to be ready for a record evening in our precincts. We have a “double-whammy” here: first, we’ve moved up the caucuses to February 5, which means that our caucuses actually will be meaningful for the first time in decades. Throw out the historical turnout at your precinct caucuses — that fact alone could triple or quadruple turnout itself. But last night was the other canary in the coal mine for county parties: in addition to the increased turnout that comes from being on February 5, Democrats can expect a wave — perhaps a tsunami — of new people on caucus night. Young people turned out in unbelievably record numbers. If that is replicated again for Democrats (the Republicans saw heavy turnout, but nothing like the Dems last night) in Colorado, holding caucuses in the same places could prove to be rather tight quarters. In other words: plan accordingly, county parties.

All of this spells good things for Democrats in 2008; the new blood that turns out on a cold evening in February 5 will hopefully be transformed into precinct-walking, voter-calling, envelope-stuffing machines in September and October!

Welcome to 2008. Now, We Work.

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 1:08 PM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

Yes, I know, you haven’t heard from DemNotes in a while. Don’t worry — it is still here, and now that we’ve gotten through the holidays, it is time to work off all of that turkey and other food that we’ve stored for the winter…

2008. Just typing that year brings to mind all sorts of promise, all sorts of potential. This is the year we could build a real majority in the U.S. Senate — in part by electing a Democrat from Colorado to replace Wayne Allard. This is the year that we could continue our reinvigoration of Colorado’s government by adding to our historic majorities in the State Senate and State House. This is the year that we could finally be rid of Marilyn Musgrave, and the year we ARE finally rid of Tom Tancredo.

Finally, in what may be the most important part of 2008, this is the year that the candidate who gets nominated in Colorado will be elected as a President who will lead our nation out of the mess that we’ve seen over the past 8 years and finally into a 21st century that is about hope and optimism instead of division and cynicism.

For us in Colorado, this begins on the evening of February 5, a night that will look a lot like (but not identical to) what you will see on the television from Iowa tonight in terms of procedure.

If you’re a county chair or a county party leader, there are a number of things you NEED to do in the next few weeks to be sure your county — no matter how big or small — is ready for caucuses on February 5, as well as to be ready for the county assemblies and conventions in the weeks to follow.

First of all, your county central committee should have already met — prior to yesterday — and determined a formula for allocating delegates from the precinct caucuses to the county convention and assembly. The formula must be uniformly applied and must take into account Democratic performance of each precinct. Each precinct must have at least two delegates. If your county party has NOT done this yet, you should schedule a central committee meeting as soon as possible to get this done.

At that meeting, you also NEED to vote on the date, time, and place for the county assembly and convention. The meeting must be between February 20 and March 17.

Finally, you need to determine where your precinct caucus locations will be. The locations must be accessible, and you need to post a sign at each location at least 10 days prior to the caucuses.

If you are a county party leader, and have questions about any of this, please let me know. Otherwise, I’m looking forward to seeing so many of you at the various caucus trainings I’ll be conducting in nearly every corner of the state. I’ll write about those as I do them, beginning with the training for Northeast Colorado counties in Fort Morgan this Saturday at 11 am at Morgan Community College.

See you there!

An Apology, the Central Committee Meets, and Odds and Ends

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 11:42 AM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

First, an apology: As many of you know, I was in Northern Virginia a couple of weekends ago for the Winter DNC Meeting. I promised to blog about all of the Presidential candidates and their speeches. I actually spent about 45 minutes writing a very long and detailed post that evening; however, when I hit the “Submit” button on my WordPress site, everything disappeared. I had not backed any of it up. I completely lost all of it. I have not had any time since then to re-create it, and now it is kind of late to do so.

To summarize, though, the candidates did a wonderful job. While I have endorsed Senator Obama, each of our candidates reinforced my feeling that we will be well-served by whomever we select as our nominee in Denver in August. There was also a lot of concern in the hall for the reports of the hostage situation at Senator Clinton’s office in New Hampshire, and I can tell you that I had a short conversation with the New Hampshire Chair, Ray Buckley, later that evening — he looked both exhausted from the day’s stresses and relieved that the hostages all got out without physical harm.

It was a great DNC meeting, and the last one before we meet again the day after the Convention adjourns in Denver in August.

—————–

Saturday was an opportunity for our State Central Committee and State Executive Committee to meet and get some last-minute business done before the caucuses. There was not anything really controversial going on, but we still had a great crowd anyway — even with snow falling throughout the state. That really impressed me — we used to wring our hands to make quorum at meetings just a few years ago, but even with bad weather and no controversy, we still made quorum easily for both meetings. Some of that is due to a rules change I helped bring about that changed the way we calculate quorum, but I think that a greater reason for it is that we have more folks who are truly excited about the opportunities we have to change Colorado and to change America in 2008 and beyond.

We approved the 2008 CDP budget — and we also noted that 2007 was the best off-year for fundraising in our Party’s post-Amendment 27 history. Rep. Mark Ferrandino, our extraordinarily capable and diligent Treasurer, attended his last meeting as Treasurer as we selected another quite able-bodied soul to fill his spot: Adams County Dems’ Treasurer Butch Hicks. I worked with Butch on the Site Selection Committee, and I know he will do an outstanding job as our new Treasurer, although he does have huge shoes to fill.

We handled a few other housekeeping items — a couple of minor rules changes, and formal approval of the delegate allocation to the counties for the State Assembly and Convention. Several Presidential campaigns had representatives there (Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Kucinich), and we also heard from our Congressional candidates in attendance. Senate President Peter Groff gave his first speech to the Central Committee in that role, and we also heard from the always-eloquent Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Finally, we heard some inspirational words about our role as the host state party for the National Convention from DNCC CEO Leah Daughtry.

After those meetings, three of the Congressional Districts held their meetings. The 2nd CD had a packed meeting where they debated when and where to hold their Convention and Assembly, finally deciding to hold it a couple of weeks prior to the State Convention and Assembly, in Westminster. Following those meetings, there was VAN training, and I led a training for some county party leaders on how to prepare for and hold the caucuses and county convention / assembly.

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A few other notes:

First, several people have asked me when I will be giving the next caucus trainings. While we are still working on a few other dates to firm up, here are the ones that have been set. On Friday evening, Jan. 11, I will be doing a training in Estes Park. The following day, Jan. 12, I will be conducting trainings for Larimer Dems in Loveland and for Weld Dems in Greeley. On Sunday, January 13, I will then be doing training in Park County, at the Jefferson Community Center. On Monday, January 14, at 7 pm, I will be doing training in Summit County (I’m assuming I will be in Frisco). The following evening, January 15, I will be doing the training in Rocky Ford. Then, on Saturday, January 19, I will be doing training here at home in Canon City, for Fremont County and the surrounding counties. Finally, on Wednesday evening, January 23, I will be conducting training for the counties in HD 63 in Alamosa.

So far, those are the ones that have been affirmatively scheduled. If you’d like for me to come to your area, please drop me a note and we’ll try to find a date that works well for everybody.

Second, Jay Fawcett, who ran an outstanding campaign for the 5th CD, and who forced the Republican Party to spend hundreds of thousands of national dollars on a district that they assumed was safe, is working hard to retire his debt from that campaign. Here’s a note from Jay:

ActBlue has reactivated my campaign account for the purpose of debt relief. I made a principled decision to pay all vendors and salaries first and I succeeded. But that leaves the campaign owing me about $70,000 I have been asking support to get to $50,000 on ActBlue by 15 December, after that I close out the campaign and move on. Any help and suggestions you can provide will be appreciated. Please spread the word and the web site.

Jay Fawcett

http://www.actblue.com/page/fawcett4congress

If you can, please visit the ActBlue site and help Jay as much as you can. I know he will appreciate it.

Chairs, Vice Chairs, and the Youth Vote — and a Colorado Analysis

Thursday, November 29th, 2007 7:45 PM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

This afternoon in Virginia, I spent my time in two “official” meetings and one not-so-official meeting. The Association of State Democratic Chairs met, followed by a very informal meeting of all of the state party vice-chairs, and then the day concluded with a meeting of the DNC Youth Council.

The ASDC meeting was the biggest chunk of the day. Pat, Sherry and I attended, and we heard from a number of folks about efforts in place for 2008. Governor Dean kicked off the meeting with a discussion of the challenges ahead in the 50-state program and what he is hoping to see from our field plan. Following Governor Dean, the Party Chairs and Vice Chairs heard from a representative each from Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid’s offices. They discussed the many successes of the Congress, the challeges posed by Republican obstructionism (they were described as the G.O.P. - the “Grand Obstruction Party”), and the problems facing the leadership in getting this message out to the average American.

The congressional staff were followed by Ben Self, who is the DNC Technology Director, who gave us an impressive update of the efforts made to continue the improvement of VoteBuilder (a/k/a VAN). We finally heard from some of the national convention staff, who discussed the next 30-60 days for state parties as they make plans to come to Denver. Of particular interest was Tina Akintayo, who is the DNCC Director of Housing. All of us from Colorado have been getting questions about the housing assignments (is the hotel nice? is it near the Convention Center? etc…) In the end, though, I believe I heard Tina say on a conference call last week that every delegation got either its first or second choice for housing, so I think folks will be generally happy.

Following the ASDC meeting, the Vice Chairs got together for an informal session to discuss our work in the various states and share ideas. We had a nearly hour-long discussion, with a pledge to do something even more organized the next time the ASDC meets.

I then went over to the Youth Council meeting. There are about 20 or fewer members of the DNC aged 35 or younger. For the next 8 months, I am one of those lucky few. This meeting was a truly lively discussion of efforts to include youth outreach in each of the Presidential campaigns and further efforts to reach out to young people who want to be delegates to the National Convention. Representatives from several presidential campaigns were there, and the discussion — while noisy at times — was very productive, I think.

Tomorrow is the big day for speeches. I’ll write more about that tomorrow.

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Sorry for the length of this post, but the NCEC (National Center for an Effective Congress), who does a lot of data crunching and vote analysis on a precinct-by-precinct level for Democrats, has just issued a short analysis of the state of Colorado politics. It is very interesting, and speaks volumes about the work of Democrats in counties like Douglas, Arapahoe, and Larimer counties. Mike Piel from the NCEC forwarded it to me, and gave me permission to post it to DemNotes. Again, I realize it is long, but it is good reading (even if it does skip CD-5):

Colorado Trending Blue
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity. In the last two election cycles, Democrats have captured two House seats, a Senate seat, the governorship, and control of both houses of the state legislature. This transformation is symptomatic of a wider development across the country that has Republican strategists deeply concerned. In short, Democrats are performing vastly better in suburban and exurban areas, and this development has put Republicans on the defensive. Colorado ’s nine electoral votes could be immensely important to Democratic presidential aspirations, and the fate of the state could serve as a strong bellwether indicator of the larger race. Colorado will more than ever be a focal point of the national election in 2008. Not only is the presidential election expected to be solidly competitive, but there is also an open Senate race, two open-seat House races, and five potentially competitive House races. In the past two cycles, Democrats have experienced increasing success in key suburban and exurban areas such as Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, leaving rural counties as the only staunchly conservative areas left for the GOP.

One of the most important factors in the increased Democratic success in Colorado is the growing support for the party in suburban areas previously dominated by Republicans. Arapahoe County is a solid example of this evolution. Since 2000, the voting-age population of Arapahoe County has increased by more than 42,000, and this increase has dramatically changed the voting habits of the county. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 43 percent of the vote in Arapahoe County . By 2002, Democratic support had increased to 46.5 percent in the Senate race. The trend of increased Democratic performance continued in 2004 and 2006. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried Arapahoe County with 52 percent of the vote, and Governor Bill Ritter outperformed Salazar in 2006 when he received nearly 60 percent of the vote (59.5 percent).

Douglas County , one of the fastest-growing counties in the country, also shows some of these positive Democratic trends. The voting-age population has increased by more than 69,000 since 2000. While the Democratic gains are not as pronounced as the shift seen in Arapahoe County , there has still been a boost in Democratic support. In 2000, Al Gore received just 31 percent of the vote in Douglas County . In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received 33 percent of the vote, a modest improvement. In 2004, Ken Salazar received more than 38 percent. The voting trend accelerated in 2006, as Governor Bill Ritter nearly carried Douglas County with more than 46 percent of the vote. While this county remains solid Republican, consistent Democratic gains in this large population center are a direct contributor to the recent success of Democrats in statewide elections.

Jefferson County , another rapidly growing population center home to more than 350,000 registered voters, has exhibited these same voting tendencies. Jefferson County was selected as the center and main voting contributor to the new Seventh Congressional District, which was added in 2002. The voting-age population has grown by 10,000 since 2000, and Democrats have been performing increasingly well there. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat, now controls the Seventh District; this would have been unthinkable ten years ago. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 44 percent of the vote in Jefferson County , but demographic shifts in the county have increased the Democratic share of the vote. In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland got more than 47 percent of the vote in Jefferson County . Ken Salazar won Jefferson County by 4 percent in 2004, and Bill Ritter amassed more than 59 percent of the vote in Jefferson County in 2006—making a 16 percent shift from 1996 to 2006.

A final example of this voting trend is Larimer County , which has seen some of the most drastic changes. Over the past seven years the voting-age population has grown by more than 24,000, and subsequent increases in Democratic support have been seen. In 2000, Al Gore got less than 40 percent of the vote in Larimer County , which is made up of rural, suburban, and exurban areas. A major shift was already evident in this county by 2002, when Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received more than 44 percent of the vote. The trend continues, as Ken Salazar won Larimer County with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. Bill Ritter won more than 58 percent of the vote in Larimer County in 2006, which represents an 18 percent surge in Democratic support from 2000–2006.

Implications for 2008

If current trends hold, Colorado will be a major player in the 2008 presidential race, as well as a golden opportunity for another Senate pickup for the Democrats. Beyond statewide races, there are competitive House races as well.

President : Democrats failed in 2004 largely because of their dependence on winning a great majority of the traditional presidential swing states, which left no room for error or a setback. In 2004, there were not enough targets. As the 2008 election approaches, Democrats should look to Colorado to expand the playing field. Picking up Colorado ’s nine electoral votes would be of great importance to the overall Western campaign strategy. John Kerry ended up 18 electoral votes shy of winning the presidency, which caused too much importance to be placed on Ohio . There are three states in the West that are expected to be competitive and that could offset the importance of Ohio and make winning there less crucial. If the Democratic candidate wins Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, all states that were decided by less than 5 percent in 2004, 19 electoral votes would be gained, which would be sufficient to make up for any potential defeat in Ohio. If present trends hold there is a good chance that Colorado could go to the Democrats for the first time since 1992.

Senate : Early polling and financial data are both extremely positive for Democrats in this Senate race. Mark Udall holds a significant advantage in money and (thus far) in support. A poll from Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling firm, had Udall ahead of Republican candidate Bob Schaffer by 5 percent (45-40). Other polling had Udall even further ahead. Udall can also count on the support of vastly popular Democratic Governor Bill Ritter. As alluded to before, increased Democratic performance in suburban areas has been paramount for recent success for Democrats. If this trend holds, Udall is certainly the favorite.

CO-02: Incumbent Mark Udall has vacated this seat to run for the Senate, but despite its open-seat status, this race is only “potentially competitive.” The major population centers in this district are in Adams, Boulder , Broomfield , and Jefferson counties. The Second District portions of Adams and Boulder counties are solidly Democratic. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried 58 percent of the Adams County portion of the district, and both Kerry and Salazar amassed 72 percent of the vote in Boulder County . Jefferson and Broomfield remain competitive, but Democrats have performed increasingly well there over the past few cycles. Ken Salazar carried the Second District portion of both counties in 2004, outpacing John Kerry by 5 percent in both counties. Republicans lack a candidate at present, so there is little chance that they will lose this district. Any one of the three potential Democratic candidates will most likely be able to hold on to this district.

CO-04: The Fourth District has been trending Democratic over the past three cycles. Marilyn Musgrave’s margin of victory has steadily decreased over the past three cycles, but 2006 might have been Democrats’ best chance to defeat her given the political environment. Angie Paccione lost by a mere 3 percent due to a number of factors.

Paccione performed well in Larimer County , which is essential for any Democrat. She amassed more than 54 percent of the major party vote, which was a large improvement over Stan Matsunaka’s performance in 2002 and 2004 when he failed to carry the county. In addition to Larimer County , Paccione performed reasonably well in Boulder County , receiving nearly 54 percent of the vote. However, in both Larimer County and Boulder County , Paccione ran well behind Governor Bill Ritter’s numbers, which suggests that even though she performed well in both these counties there is room for improvement. For example, Paccione received nearly 5 percent less than did Bill Ritter in Boulder County , and more than 3 percent less in Larimer County . Modest improvement in these counties could put this district increasingly in play.

Another factor that led to Paccione’s defeat is one that was symptomatic of many close defeats for Democrats in 2006: Democrats expanded their performance in urban and suburban areas, but did not improve in rural areas. The Fourth District comprises mainly rural counties where Paccione failed to improve on past cycles. For example, her share of the major party vote ran behind Stan Matsunaka’s 2004 share in Cheyenne , Logan , Morgan , Washington , Weld, and Yuma counties. Slightly increased performance in these counties would have given her a real chance to win the race.

Musgrave has toned down her rhetoric so far this term, which will make her more difficult to beat. However, slight improvements in rural areas, coupled with extended success in Boulder County and Larimer County , could flip this seat in 2008.

CO-06: Tom Tancredo’s retirement will make this a much more competitive race, but winning this gerrymandered district will take a strong moderate candidate who can attract a decent number of Republican votes. The Sixth District pulls in the most conservative parts of Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. In 2004, John Kerry and Ken Salazar ran well below their countywide percentages in the Sixth District portion of these counties. For example, Ken Salazar received 52 percent of the countywide vote in Arapahoe County in 2004, but just 47 percent in the Sixth District portion of the county. The same scenario played out in Jefferson County where Salazar performed more than 4 percent worse in the Sixth District portion of the county in comparison to his countywide performance. Mike Coffman’s entrance into the race will make this district even harder to win, but will lead to a Democrat taking the position of Secretary of State.

CO-07: Ed Perlmutter’s 13 percent victory in this district has led Republicans to essentially abandon the district. No opponent to Perlmutter has surfaced as of yet, and it is likely that he will be reelected.

In Vienna, We Hold Our Breath

Thursday, November 29th, 2007 11:34 AM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

We are now just about a month out from the first actual votes in the Presidential race (maybe even sooner - I understand that some absentee ballots in Feb. 5 states may be in voters’ hands as early as December). Iowa is revved up for January 3, and the Democratic Party is anxiously awaiting the results of the early primaries and caucuses (including Colorado’s Feb. 5 caucus) to see who our nominee will be.

I’m here in Vienna, Virginia — a suburb of Washington DC — for the Winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Several other Coloradans are here, as well. Last night, I enjoyed a couple of drinks with DNC Members Mannie Rodriguez and Maria Handley, as well as CDP Executive Director Sherry Jackson and DNC members from Kansas and New Mexico. Pat Waak stopped by on her way out to dinner to say hello, as well. No matter where you go around here, the talk is about the Presidential race; Mannie was doing everything he could to talk up his candidate, Senator Clinton, while the New Mexico folks were pressing hard to get in some of the finer points about why supporting Governor Richardson was so critical.

The meetings start slowly with a few this afternoon: the Association of State Democratic Chairs will meet, followed by the Resolutions Committee and the Youth and Senior Coordinating Councils. I spoke to the Senior Coordinating Council a couple of years ago about what we’re doing in Colorado, and I’m a member (at least until next July) of the Youth Coordinating Council.

Tomorrow, though, is the big show. Hopefully, you will get a chance to catch some of the meeting on C-SPAN. I believe the coverage will start around 8 am Mountain time. Nearly every Presidential candidate will be here to speak to the DNC; Governor Richardson and Senators Edwards, Dodd and Obama will speak to us in the morning session. In the afternoon, we’ll hear from Rep. Kucinich and Sens. Biden and Clinton. Speaker Pelosi will also be addressing us, and the DNC will also hear from a very special guest — Colorado Governor Bill Ritter — about the work we are doing to prepare Colorado for next August’s nomination of the next President of the United States.

Tomorrow is filled with a number of other meetings, as well. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will be meeting in the morning, and they always have interesting news. The Rural Council will be meeting, as well, and the Hispanic Caucus will be electing a new chair. We will conclude on Saturday morning, with a few more caucus meetings and other trainings.

I’ll write about today’s meetings this evening. Again, though, try to record the DNC meeting tomorrow — the candidates really work hard to put together a good speech for the DNC meetings, since all of us are automatically delegates to the national convention and they want our votes.

Denver’s Hotels Welcome America’s Democrats

Tuesday, November 20th, 2007 3:08 PM by Dan Slater

(Cross-Posted to DemNotes at www.DemNotes.com)

As I indicated at the end of my post earlier today, the DNCC has announced the housing assignments for the Democratic National Convention in Denver next August.

First, some background: Somewhere between 17,000 and 19,000 rooms across Denver have been blocked off by hotels in the metro area for the Convention. Of these, around 6,000 to 7,000 are set aside for state delegations. The ones that are set aside for delegations are all in one of three areas: Downtown, Tech Center, and Stapleton. This summer, nearly every state sent a representative to Denver to tour hotels in those three areas and make their preferences known to the DNCC. Since September, the DNCC has been working on a complicated puzzle, trying to take into account the preferences of the delegations (some wanted close hotels, some wanted cheaper hotels, some wanted hotels with a lot of amenities, and some were limited to the largest hotels, etc.) and the available hotels.

Today, the DNCC announced the assignments.

For starters, the Colorado Delegation will be staying in a pretty good downtown spot: the Grand Hyatt. (Note that this is not the newer Hyatt Regency, which will be the DNC’s Headquarters Hotel; no delegation is staying there). Here’s an interesting point: normally, we share our hotel with one or two other delegations. In 2004, we shared the Wyndham in Boston with the Georgia delegation. However, according to the press release from the DNCC, no other delegation is staying at the Grand Hyatt. The full press release is available at:
http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/11/delegation_hote.html

Some other notes of interest:

– For the home states of our “front-runners” for the nomination, the New York delegation is staying at the Adams Mark; the Illinois delegation is at the Marriott City Center; the North Carolina delegation is at the Doubletree Denver Tech Center; and the New Mexico delegation will be at the Crowne Plaza, Downtown.
– California is also at the Adam’s Mark; Texas is at the Radisson Denver Southeast.
– Governor Dean’s Vermont delegation is at the Magnolia Hotel.
– Where will you see the most delegations? The Stapleton Doubletree and the Four Points by Sheraton, Southeast both have four delegations each staying at their properties. Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota are staying at the Stapleton Doubletree; Alaska, Minnesota, Puerto Rico and Rhode Island are at the Four Points Southeast.
– Our neighbors besides New Mexico? Wyoming is the Hyatt Place at the Denver Tech Center; Utah (who got the first priority during the lottery) is at the Warwick; Arizona is at the Hyatt Regency in the Tech Center; Oklahoma is at the Embassy Suites Southeast; Kansas is at the Doubletree Tech Center; and Nebraska is also at the Embassy Suites Southeast.
– Finally, if you want to see some of the Party’s rising stars, you should hang out near the Wyndham at the Tech Center or the Downtown Courtyard by Marriott around breakfast time. The New Hampshire delegation is staying at the Wyndham; the Iowa delegation has the Downtown Courtyard. Aspiring presidential hopefuls beyond 2008 often work to stop by each of those two delegations to speak to their delegation breakfast meetings.

Whew! With every passing day, this dream of holding the National Convention in Denver becomes more and more real, doesn’t it?

Get Local - Be A Neighborhood Leader

Thursday, November 8th, 2007 2:26 PM by admin

There’s now less than a year until November 4, 2008 - Election Day 2008.

This weekend and next week, please join one of our “Year Out” house meeting events as we begin a new voter contact strategy to elect a Democratic president and Democrats up and down ticket.

Our four field organizers - Robin Van Ausdall, Annajo Sanchez, Kim Phillips, and Daryl Grant - are organizing meetings around the state to roll out a new “Neighborhood Leader” program. We hope that you’ll attend one of these house meetings to learn more about the program and commit to serving as a Neighborhood Leader in 2008.

The work of Neighborhood Leaders is simple - they’ll each talk to 25 voters at least three times before Election Day 2008, and they’ll recruit two more people to become Neighborhood Leaders as well.

But the work of Neighborhood Leaders is also powerful - direct, personal conversations with voters at the door, or on the phone, are the most effective way of communicating with and persuading swing voters. Personal communication works better than TV ads, better than mailers, better than robocalls - it’s the essence of grassroots politics.

Democratic Party field staffers are organizing house meetings all over the country in November to recruit activists as Neighborhood Leaders. By Election Day 2008, there will be 500,000 Neighborhood Leaders nationwide, working to Get Out The Vote and take our country back.

By committing to be Neighborhood Leader in 2008, you’ll make a difference at the local level and you’ll be part of bold national effort. Please RSVP for one of the following house meetings today. If you attend one of the house meetings on Saturday, November 10th, you’ll be able to hear from Congressman Mark Udall, who will be joining the house meetings by conference call.

Thank you,

Pat Waak
CDP Chair

Saturday, November 10

Metro Denver House Meeting
12:00 PM to 1:30 PM
Colorado Democratic Party HQ, 777 Santa Fe Drive, Denver
RSVP to: http://www.udallforcolorado.com/page/event/detail/jtc

Morgan County House Meeting
12:00 PM to 2:00 PM
Morgan County Dems HQ, 329 Ensign, Fort Morgan
RSVP to: Lesle Bundy, lnbundy@yahoo.com

El Paso County House Meeting
12:00 PM to 3:00 PM
Home of Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez, Colorado Springs
RSVP to: Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez, 719-651-9445 or 719-591-2188

Southeast Colorado Five-County House Meeting
12:00 PM to 2:30 PM
Prowers County Dems HQ, 207 S. Main St. Lamar
RSVP to: Susan Crites, carosue@centurytel.com or Randa Davis-Tice, davisticelaw@msn.com

Mesa State College Young Dems Meeting
12:00 PM to 3:00 PM
Saccomanno Hall, Science Building, Mesa State College, 12th and Elm, Grand Junction
RSVP to: Kimberly Phillips, DNC Western Slope Regional Organizer: 970-404-1960 or phillipsk@dnc.org or Ashley Mates, Mesa State College Young Democrats President: 970-391-0699 or amates@mesastate.edu

Garfield County House Party
12:00 PM to 1:30 PM
RE-1 School Administration Building, 1405 Grand Ave, Glenwood Springs
RSVP to: Kimberly Phillips, phillipsk@dnc.org, 970-404-1960

Sunday, November 11

Saguache County House Meeting
2:00 PM to 4:00 PM
865 Pinecone Way, Crestone
RSVP to: M. Esther Grant, chuckmeg@fairpoint.net

Monday, November 12

Pueblo County House Meeting
12:00 PM to 1:30 PM
Pueblo Dems HQ, 305 North Santa Fe Ave, Pueblo
RSVP to: Jane Wilson, Pam DiFatta, or Norma Oldham, 719-546-2745

Wednesday, November 14

Otero County House Meeting
7:00 PM to 8:30 PM
CSU Extension, 411 North 10th Street, Rocky Ford
RSVP to: Diane Rikhof, 719-384-5701

Thursday, November 15

Crowley County House Meeting
6:30 PM to 8:30 PM
RSVP to: Thomas Florez, lavetra@centurytel.net

Saturday, November 17

Montrose County House Meeting
12:00PM to 3:00PM
Home of Noelle Hagan, 2028 Cambridge Dr, Montrose
RSVP to: DNC Western Slope Regional Organizer: Kimberly Phillips: phillipsk@dnc.org or 970-404-1960 or Montrose County Democratic Party Vice Chair Jayne Bilberry: queenbilberry@hotmail.com or 970-596-1163

Montrose County Meeting and caucus/assembly training with Delta, Ouray, San Juan and San Miguel counties
2:00PM to 4:00PM
Montrose County Library, 320 South 2nd Street, Montrose
RSVP to: DNC Western Slope Regional Organizer: Kimberly Phillips: phillipsk@dnc.org or 970-404-1960

Routt County Caucus Training and Presentation
11:30 AM to 3:30 PM
Olympian Hall, 845 Howelson Pkwy, Steamboat Springs
RSVP to: Catherine Carson, tomangel@aol.com or (970) 870-2896

Saguache County House Meeting & Training
6:00 PM to 8:30 PM
Oasis Restaurant, 630 Gunnison Ave (aka Hwy 285), Saguache
RSVP to: M. Esther Grant, me.grant@hotmail.com or Daryl Grant, grantd@dnc.org or call 719-256-5490

Olbermann Gets It.

Tuesday, November 6th, 2007 11:33 AM by Dan Slater

I was planning this morning to write about a couple of great events — the JacXPres Dinner in Pueblo on Friday, and the State Party fundraiser with Govs. Ritter, Romer, and Sebelius last night in Denver. But after I arrived back home in Canon City, I turned on MSNBC to something much more compelling. I don’t normally forward full statements or articles verbatim, but this “Special Comment” delivered last night by Keith Olbermann needs no big introduction, and no editorial comment from myself could possibly add to its weight and accuracy. I’m not sure the written version gets the fire in the belly that you see when Olbermann delivers it orally, but you should certainly be moved by this. And, by the way, if Mr. Singleton at the Post wanted to see a subject that is TRULY worthy of a front-page editorial, he should probably read this eloquent oratory:

It is a fact startling in its cynical simplicity and it requires cynical and simple words to be properly expressed: The presidency of George W. Bush has now devolved into a criminal conspiracy to cover the ass of George W. Bush.

All the petulancy, all the childish threats, all the blank-stare stupidity; all the invocations of World War III, all the sophistic questions about which terrorist attacks we wanted him not to stop, all the phony secrets; all the claims of executive privilege, all the stumbling tap-dancing of his nominees, all the verbal flatulence of his apologists…

All of it is now, after one revelation last week, transparently clear for what it is: the pathetic and desperate manipulation of the government, the refocusing of our entire nation, toward keeping this mock president and this unstable vice president and this departed wildly self-overrating attorney general, and the others, from potential prosecution for having approved or ordered the illegal torture of prisoners being held in the name of this country.

“Waterboarding is torture,” Daniel Levin was to write. Daniel Levin was no theorist and no protester. He was no troublemaking politician. He was no table-pounding commentator. Daniel Levin was an astonishingly patriotic American and a brave man.

Brave not just with words or with stances, even in a dark time when that kind of bravery can usually be scared or bought off.

Charged, as you heard in the story from ABC News last Friday, with assessing the relative legality of the various nightmares in the Pandora’s box that is the Orwell-worthy euphemism “Enhanced Interrogation,” Mr. Levin decided that the simplest, and the most honest, way to evaluate them … was to have them enacted upon himself.

Daniel Levin took himself to a military base and let himself be waterboarded.

Mr. Bush, ever done anything that personally courageous?

Perhaps when you’ve gone to Walter Reed and teared up over the maimed servicemen? And then gone back to the White House and determined that there would be more maimed servicemen?

Has it been that kind of personal courage, Mr. Bush, when you’ve spoken of American victims and the triumph of freedom and the sacrifice of your own popularity for the sake of our safety? And then permitted others to fire or discredit or destroy anybody who disagreed with you, whether they were your own generals, or Max Cleland, or Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame, or Daniel Levin?

Daniel Levin should have a statue in his honor in Washington right now.

Instead, he was forced out as acting assistant attorney general nearly three years ago because he had the guts to do what George Bush couldn’t do in a million years: actually put himself at risk for the sake of his country, for the sake of what is right.

And they waterboarded him. And he wrote that even though he knew those doing it meant him no harm, and he knew they would rescue him at the instant of the slightest distress, and he knew he would not die — still, with all that reassurance, he could not stop the terror screaming from inside of him, could not quell the horror, could not convince that which is at the core of each of us, the entity who exists behind all the embellishments we strap to ourselves, like purpose and name and family and love, he could not convince his being that he wasn’t drowning.

Waterboarding, he said, is torture. Legally, it is torture! Practically, it is torture! Ethically, it is torture! And he wrote it down.

Wrote it down somewhere, where it could be contrasted with the words of this country’s 43rd president: “The United States of America … does not torture.”

Made you into a liar, Mr. Bush.

Made you into, if anybody had the guts to pursue it, a criminal, Mr. Bush.

Waterboarding had already been used on Khalid Sheik Mohammed and a couple of other men none of us really care about except for the one detail you’d forgotten — that there are rules. And even if we just make up these rules, this country observes them anyway, because we’re Americans and we’re better than that.

We’re better than you.

And the man your Justice Department selected to decide whether or not waterboarding was torture had decided, and not in some phony academic fashion, nor while wearing the Walter Mitty poseur attire of flight suit and helmet.

He had put his money, Mr. Bush, where your mouth was.

So, your sleazy sycophantic henchman Mr. Gonzales had him append an asterisk suggesting his black-and-white answer wasn’t black-and-white, that there might have been a quasi-legal way of torturing people, maybe with an absolute time limit and a physician entitled to stop it, maybe, if your administration had ever bothered to set any rules or any guidelines.

And then when your people realized that even that was too dangerous, Daniel Levin was branded “too independent” and “someone who could (not) be counted on.”

In other words, Mr. Bush, somebody you couldn’t count on to lie for you.

So, Levin was fired.

Because if it ever got out what he’d concluded, and the lengths to which he went to validate that conclusion, anybody who had sanctioned waterboarding and who-knows-what-else on anybody, you yourself, you would have been screwed.

And screwed you are.

It can’t be coincidence that the story of Daniel Levin should emerge from the black hole of this secret society of a presidency just at the conclusion of the unhappy saga of the newest attorney general nominee.

Another patriot somewhere listened as Judge Mukasey mumbled like he’d never heard of waterboarding and refused to answer in words … that which Daniel Levin answered on a waterboard somewhere in Maryland or Virginia three years ago.

And this someone also heard George Bush say, “The United States of America does not torture,” and realized either he was lying or this wasn’t the United States of America anymore, and either way, he needed to do something about it.

Not in the way Levin needed to do something about it, but in a brave way nonetheless.

We have U.S. senators who need to do something about it, too.

Chairman Leahy of the Judiciary Committee has seen this for what it is and said “enough.”

Sen. Schumer has seen it, reportedly, as some kind of puzzle piece in the New York political patronage system, and he has failed.

What Sen. Feinstein has seen, to justify joining Schumer in rubber-stamping Mukasey, I cannot guess.

It is obvious that both those senators should look to the meaning of the story of Daniel Levin and recant their support for Mukasey’s confirmation.

And they should look into their own committee’s history and recall that in 1973, their predecessors were able to wring even from Richard Nixon a guarantee of a special prosecutor (ultimately a special prosecutor of Richard Nixon!), in exchange for their approval of his new attorney general, Elliott Richardson.

If they could get that out of Nixon, before you confirm the president’s latest human echo on Tuesday, you had better be able to get a “yes” or a “no” out of Michael Mukasey.

Ideally you should lock this government down financially until a special prosecutor is appointed, or 50 of them, but I’m not holding my breath. The “yes” or the “no” on waterboarding will have to suffice.

Because, remember, if you can’t get it, or you won’t with the time between tonight and the next presidential election likely to be the longest year of our lives, you are leaving this country, and all of us, to the waterboards, symbolic and otherwise, of George W. Bush.

Ultimately, Mr. Bush, the real question isn’t who approved the waterboarding of this fiend Khalid Sheik Mohammed and two others.

It is: Why were they waterboarded?

Study after study for generation after generation has confirmed that torture gets people to talk, torture gets people to plead, torture gets people to break, but torture does not get them to tell the truth.

Of course, Mr. Bush, this isn’t a problem if you don’t care if the terrorist plots they tell you about are the truth or just something to stop the tormentors from drowning them.

If, say, a president simply needed a constant supply of terrorist threats to keep a country scared.

If, say, he needed phony plots to play hero during, and to boast about interrupting, and to use to distract people from the threat he didn’t interrupt.

If, say, he realized that even terrorized people still need good ghost stories before they will let a president pillage the Constitution,

Well, Mr. Bush, who better to dream them up for you than an actual terrorist?

He’ll tell you everything he ever fantasized doing in his most horrific of daydreams, his equivalent of the day you “flew” onto the deck of the Lincoln to explain you’d won in Iraq.

Now if that’s what this is all about, you tortured not because you’re so stupid you think torture produces confession but you tortured because you’re smart enough to know it produces really authentic-sounding fiction — well, then, you’re going to need all the lawyers you can find … because that crime wouldn’t just mean impeachment, would it?

That crime would mean George W. Bush is going to prison.

Thus the master tumblers turn, and the lock yields, and the hidden explanations can all be perceived, in their exact proportions, in their exact progressions.

Daniel Levin’s eminently practical, eminently logical, eminently patriotic way of testing the legality of waterboarding has to vanish, and him with it.

Thus Alberto Gonzales has to use that brain that sounds like an old car trying to start on a freezing morning to undo eight centuries of the forward march of law and government.

Thus Dick Cheney has to ridiculously assert that confirming we do or do not use any particular interrogation technique would somehow help the terrorists.

Thus Michael Mukasey, on the eve of the vote that will make him the high priest of the law of this land, cannot and must not answer a question, nor even hint that he has thought about a question, which merely concerns the theoretical definition of waterboarding as torture.

Because, Mr. Bush, in the seven years of your nightmare presidency, this whole string of events has been transformed.

From its beginning as the most neglectful protection ever of the lives and safety of the American people … into the most efficient and cynical exploitation of tragedy for political gain in this country’s history … and, then, to the giddying prospect that you could do what the military fanatics did in Japan in the 1930s and remake a nation into a fascist state so efficient and so self-sustaining that the fascism would be nearly invisible.

But at last this frightful plan is ending with an unexpected crash, the shocking reality that no matter how thoroughly you might try to extinguish them, Mr. Bush, how thoroughly you tried to brand disagreement as disloyalty, Mr. Bush, there are still people like Daniel Levin who believe in the United States of America as true freedom, where we are better, not because of schemes and wars, but because of dreams and morals.

And ultimately these men, these patriots, will defeat you and they will return this country to its righteous standards, and to its rightful owners, the people.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21644133/